Week 1 FNF: Chiefs-Chargers Preview, Props, Prediction

Brazil landed a marquee matchup with the Los Angeles Chargers taking part in “host” to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in Sao Paulo on Friday evening.

It is a vital AFC West rivalry recreation to start the season for each groups, which has drawn some criticism for happening exterior of america in Week 1. The Chargers are trying to shut the sport between them and the division-dominating Chiefs, who swept final season’s conferences to run their profitable streak within the rivalry to seven.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Chiefs are a consensus 3-point favourite, however the line was sitting at 3.5 factors at a number of sportsbooks Friday afternoon, with further juice on the Chargers at +3.5. BetRivers reported 64 % of the entire bets and 63 % of the unfold cash has backed Kansas Metropolis.

The Chiefs’ -186 moneyline has been much more widespread, drawing 74 and 71 % of the motion, respectively.

The 45-point Over/Below has seen the Over backed by 67 % of the bets and 83 % of the cash.

PROP PICKS

–Over 46.5 Complete Factors (-109 at BetRivers): The entire has shifted from 45 factors with the Over being backed by 67 % of the entire tickets and 83 % of the cash. The guide reported that every of the Chiefs’ previous eight season openers in opposition to AFC opponents have gone Over the entire factors line, whereas Kansas Metropolis has coated the unfold in 5 of their previous six season openers in opposition to AFC groups.

–Chargers QB Justin Herbert 200+ Passing Yards (-272 at DraftKings): This has been the most well-liked participant prop for this recreation on the guide, regardless of Los Angeles being anticipated to make use of a run-heavy gameplan. Herbert averaged 196 passing yards in two conferences final yr whereas throwing two touchdowns in opposition to no interceptions. Regardless of a tough outing within the playoff loss, Herbert did common 303.7 passing yards over the ultimate three regular-season video games.

INSIDE EDGE

Inside Edge’s Outstanding engine has numbers to assist the notion that rookie operating again Omarion Hampton and veteran Najee Harris can be a focus of Los Angeles’ gameplan so long as the sport is shut. The Chargers have been 9-0 final season when operating for 100-plus yards as a crew.

Nonetheless, the Chiefs additionally led the league in permitting solely 93.7 dashing yards per recreation final season, per Inside Edge. That features limiting opponents to a 34 % “success price” on dashing makes an attempt within the first quarter.

Do not anticipate a variety of manufacturing out of Hampton and Harris within the passing recreation — Chargers operating backs averaged a league-low 15.9 receiving yards per recreation final season.

KEY STATS

In 12 profession video games in opposition to the Chargers, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has 3,270 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He is solely thrown extra TD passes in opposition to one opponent: the Raiders (33). His final loss to the Chargers got here in 2021: A 30-24 defeat with three TDs and two interceptions.

THE NEWS

The Chargers featured one of many NFL’s greatest defenses final yr in coach Jim Harbaugh’s first season as their head coach, then invested in a number of operating backs within the offseason to additional his most well-liked old-school strategy.

After signing Harris in free company, the Chargers used a first-round decide to pick Hampton. Recognized for his velocity, Hampton wowed Harbaugh along with his imaginative and prescient and skill to choose via visitors within the preseason. Harris missed coaching camp and preseason as a result of a July 4 eye harm, however Harbaugh stated after Wednesday’s walk-through in Brazil that Harris will play.

“He says he is prepared, and he seems to be able to go,” Harbaugh stated.

Harbaugh has zero considerations along with his backfield basically. He stated he believes Herbert’s greatest weak spot lies in coaches and teammates failing to achieve the quarterback’s degree.

“The whole lot he does — conditioning, every part — it is too simple (for him). It’s a must to attempt to pull him again,” Harbaugh stated. “It is clear and apparent, all of us have to choose it as much as get on his degree.”

Herbert had 23 touchdowns and three interceptions in his first season beneath Harbaugh. The Chiefs surrendered two whole TD passes and sacked him 5 instances of their two 2024 conferences.

5 weeks after reporting to coaching camp, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo stated he can sense power on the rise for a “quote-unquote actual recreation.”

Spagnuolo gave new cornerback Kristian Fulton, a free-agent addition from the Chargers who practiced every day in opposition to Ladd McConkey final yr, the ground on the first defensive assembly of the week to emphasize the significance of figuring out McConkey’s whereabouts and the way he impacts the Los Angeles recreation plan.

“The primary slide I put up final week stated, ‘All 22 want to pay attention to the place 15 is,'” Spagnuolo stated of putting McConkey on the highest of the scouting report this week. “I requested the fellows if (they) knew what we imply. It meant all 22 eyeballs. Each considered one of them, the D-line included, must know the place he’s. We really feel that strongly. That is going to be a significant, main focus.”

McConkey had 1,346 yards and 91 receptions between the common season and playoffs final season to set crew data. He’ll be Herbert’s lead goal even with Keenan Allen again within the fold after one season in Chicago. Allen owns the Chargers’ franchise marks with 904 receptions and 10,530 yards within the uniform.

With Rashee Rice suspended for six weeks by the NFL, the pecking order at large receiver is just not as clear for the Chiefs. Xavier Worthy, a first-round decide in 2024, developed into the No. 1 choice for Mahomes in 2024 with the velocity to get deep. Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Tyquan Thornton, and rookie fourth-round decide Jalen Royals are the opposite choices for Kansas Metropolis, together with tight finish Travis Kelce.

INJURY REPORT

Chiefs coach Andy Reid stated Brown (foot, ankle) was in a position to “do every part” in observe on Tuesday whereas Royals (knee) remained out.

Chargers proper guard Mekhi Becton has been added to the harm report as questionable as a result of an sickness. Becton, 26, has began 45 of the 46 profession video games by which he has performed with the Jets and Philadelphia Eagles since being chosen by New York with the eleventh total decide of the 2020 NFL Draft.

If he is unable to go, Jamaree Salyer, who has appeared in 51 video games and began 35 over the previous three seasons for the Chargers, is listed as Becton’s backup.

THEY SAID IT

“I feel it is candy we get to play internationally first recreation of the season. That is a problem for us as a crew. Division rivalry. We additionally get an opportunity to check the place we’re at.” –Chiefs defensive deal with Chris Jones. Jones stated he is bringing two TVs — a brand new LG mannequin that may be checked — and a severe urge for food with fingers crossed he is permitted to pattern loads of the culinary choices.

PREDICTION

The Chargers imagine they’ve not less than shrunk the hole a bit however till they’ll really finish the three 1/2-year dropping streak, the Chiefs nonetheless enter with an enormous edge in confidence. It could be a decrease scoring recreation than some anticipate with Los Angeles pounding the ball away at one of many league’s elite run defenses, however Mahomes has an uncanny means of discovering the tip zone late to tug victories out of the jaws of defeat. –Chiefs 23, Chargers 20

–Subject Stage Media