UFC 303 paths to victory: How can Jiri Prochazka get revenge on Alex Pereira?

Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka are set to run issues again.

This Saturday, Pereira and Prochazka rematch their UFC 295 gentle heavyweight title struggle in the primary occasion of UFC 303. The primary time these two met, Pereira knocked Prochazka out within the second spherical to turn into the UFC’s ninth two-division champion. This time, the 2 meet on short-notice as they step in to avoid wasting the day following Conor McGregor’s withdrawal from the occasion resulting from damage.

How will every man strategy this struggle, and the way do they take residence the win? Let’s have a look.

Photograph by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC by way of Getty Photographs

Paths to Victory for Alex Pereira at UFC 303

When these two first fought, I picked Pereira to win with relative ease as a result of Prochazka’s offense, whereas potent, will not be backed up by elite protection, which means Pereira would have ample alternative to counter. That’s lower than best for Prochakza on condition that Pereira is likely one of the hardest punchers within the sport. And I used to be half proper. Sure, Prochakza did stroll headlong on to Pereira’s offense repeatedly, however what really did him in was the low kicks.

Pereira is probably one of the best calf-kicker in MMA. He’s so adept at kicking the legs with none setup, making it extraordinarily exhausting to learn. And that’s particularly unhealthy for Prochakza who operates from a protracted stance with quite a lot of weight on the entrance foot. Aleksandar Rakic chopped the lead leg out from Prochakza, and was dominating the struggle, till Prochazka went wild man on him and easily overran him with offense. That’s a way more tough proposition towards somebody with the firepower and strategy of Pereira.

What this implies is that for Pereira, the trail ahead is easy: make this struggle like the primary one. Chop the entrance leg, defend takedowns, and clip Prochazka when he begins to get wild. On high of that, Pereira additionally ought to look to double jab, establishing the straight proper hand. As a result of Prochakza fights together with his fingers down, his first intuition on protection is to slide after which slide again. The double jab with a observe up places Prochakza within the powerful spot of being on the finish of his protection when the ability shot is available in. Double jabs and calf kicks, that’s the secret on Saturday for Pereira.

Photograph by Carmen Mandato/Getty Photographs

Paths to victory for Jiri Prochazka at UFC 303

Although he bought stopped within the first matchup, Prochakza enters Saturday saying he’s not going to vary the gameplan. That looks like a nasty thought. In spite of everything, the definition of loopy is doing the identical factor and anticipating totally different outcomes.

Within the first struggle, Prochakza approached it in the identical approach he approaches most individuals, just a little little bit of every little thing. He reveals Pereira a ton of various appears on the ft, scored one takedown, and even shocked Pereira within the second spherical with a barrage of lengthy punches that “Poatan” didn’t see coming. It’s a wise technique to struggle most individuals: however Pereira will not be most individuals.

Conserving opponents on their toes is often a very good technique. The extra they’ve to contemplate, the more durable issues get for them. Besides on this circumstance, when Prochakza spent the second spherical consenting to a putting battle with Pereira, that was simply enjoying to his opponent’s power. Positive, you can win that approach. But it surely’s wiser to not.

The best technique to beat Pereira is to take him down. That nearly fully negates his offense, which means Prochakza has one of the best probability to win the struggle. And whereas Pereira is healthier than many imagine at wrestling and grappling, Prochakza proved he can do it. His first plan of assault ought to at all times be getting this to the ground and as soon as it’s there, it needs to be about management. Prochakza’s wild tendencies lengthen to the bottom as nicely and that’s how Pereira stood up within the first struggle. The main focus needs to be getting Pereira down after which preserving him there. Let offense come afterwards.

In fact that doesn’t imply be afraid of Pereira’s putting. No fighter can win a struggle if they simply punt on one section of the sport fully. Prochakza had a very good quantity of success on the ft utilizing a ton of feints to maintain Pereira off stability. Utilizing loads of that, plus extra physique work needs to be the main focus in putting. Prochakza has a sneaky entrance kick to the physique that may serve him nicely, and the physique work ought to open up different alternatives each up high and into clinches, the place Prochakza than then look to take issues to the ground.

X-Elements

In keeping with Prochakza, the largest x-factor is Pereira’s use of “religious forces” to achieve an unsporting benefit within the struggle. However any good samurai ought to be capable of negate the paranormal powers deployed towards him, so I’m calling {that a} wash. No, the x-factor on this struggle is the short-notice.

Per most experiences, Pereira was not initially eager on stepping in to avoid wasting this occasion on just some weeks’ discover, and was in truth in Australia on the time. Add in that he’s recovering/nonetheless coping with some damaged toes (coincidentally the identical situation that led Conor McGregor to withdraw from the occasion) and it’s honest to surprise what model of Pereira will step into the cage on Saturday. No fighter competes at 100%, however is Poatan even at 75? We’ll see.

On the opposite aspect of issues, Prochakza can also be stepping in on quick discover however rumor has it he was coaching like regular. If that’s the case, that’s undoubtedly a bonus heading into this struggle.

Might all of this be nothing? In fact! It’s rumor, hypothesis, and conjecture. But when Pereira reveals up and might’t transfer as nicely or runs out of fuel within the later rounds, everybody will look again and assume we must always have seen this coming.

Prediction

Due to the quick discover, I do imagine this struggle is nearer than final time, however I’ll guess the identical end result occurs. Prochakza has some instruments to make issues tough, however his insistence that he’s not altering the plan and his odd obsession with Pereira’s “religious powers” makes me assume “BJP” didn’t study any actual classes from the primary encounter. In that case, Prochakza is mainly hoping to high-roll a knockout blow towards Pereira, which may at all times occur, however the extra seemingly consequence is one other struggle the place Jiri runs headlong onto Pereira’s greatest weapons.

Alex Pereira def. Jiri Prochazka by way of knockout (punches) — 4:34, Spherical 3.