Violent crime fell by 3 p.c nationwide final yr, in response to FBI information launched on Monday. That contains substantial drops in homicide and rape (11.6 p.c and 9.4 p.c, respectively), together with smaller decreases in aggravated assault (2.8 p.c) and theft (0.3 p.c). The FBI can also be reporting an general 2.4 p.c drop in property crime, though it says automotive thefts had been up by 12.6 p.c.
These numbers additional undermine former President Donald Trump’s declare that crime is on the rise throughout the nation—a pattern that the Republican presidential nominee blames on the Biden administration and, by extension, his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. Particularly, Trump’s assertion that “homicides are skyrocketing” is plainly inconsistent not solely with the FBI’s numbers but additionally with information from a number of different sources based mostly on varied samples of cities.
The Trump marketing campaign argues that the FBI’s numbers are deceptive. It notes that the proportion of regulation enforcement companies reporting information to the FBI fell considerably when the FBI rejiggered its system in 2021. That drop in participation required the FBI to rely extra closely on estimates to account for lacking information, magnifying the potential for error. However that state of affairs has been steadily bettering, and the FBI says the 2023 numbers are based mostly on information from companies overlaying 94.3 p.c of the U.S. inhabitants, up from 65 p.c in 2021. The 2023 protection price is just like the historic norm.
The Trump marketing campaign additionally notes that the FBI’s numbers embrace solely crimes that had been reported to police. It argues that the Nationwide Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS)—which doesn’t cowl homicides however asks about different offenses, whether or not or not they resulted in police studies—paints a extra correct image.
In accordance with the NVCS, the violent victimization price fell by 29 p.c between 2018 and 2020, the final yr of the Trump administration. The speed remained primarily the identical in 2021 however jumped by 42 p.c in 2022, President Joe Biden’s second yr in workplace. Final yr, it fell by about 4 p.c. Though the change was not statistically important, it’s just like the drop reported by the FBI.
The property victimization price, in the meantime, fell by about 13 p.c between 2018 and 2020, fell once more in 2021, and rose by about 12 p.c in 2022. Final yr, that price remained about the identical.
“Violent crime hasn’t ‘dropped,’ because the Pretend Information insists,” the Trump marketing campaign says. In accordance with the NCVS, it provides, “violent crime [excluding homicides] is up 37% between 2020 and final yr,” and “the entire variety of violent crimes reported final yr [again, excluding homicides] is larger than any yr underneath President Trump.” It guarantees that Trump “will END the lawlessness as soon as once more.”
Though it’s uncertain that the president (not to mention the vp) has a lot affect on crime charges, Trump argues that Harris needs to be blamed for any will increase that occurred throughout the Biden administration, even when these tendencies now appear to be abating (some extent that Trump is loath to acknowledge). However by the identical logic, Trump needs to be blamed for the large 29 p.c spike in homicides we noticed in 2020.
“Kamala has presided over three of the 4 most murderous years within the final quarter century,” the Trump marketing campaign says. “In most cities, homicide charges stay larger than pre-pandemic ranges.” Each of these sentences elide the purpose that Trump presided over by far the sharpest rise within the murder price over the past three a long time.
Final yr’s drop in homicides was traditionally massive, and preliminary information counsel we are going to see an excellent greater discount in 2024. Primarily based on a pattern of 277 cities, AH Datalytics studies that murders are down by 17.6 p.c thus far this yr.
