Do y’all do not forget that band you grew up on at all times being good, taking part in top quality music, however then as everybody will get older and life adjustments, the music doesn’t sound the identical?
That’s what the San Francisco 49ers really feel like.
Amidst a 12 months of harm, dysfunction, and simply total not feeling the identical because the face-melting groups we usually affiliate with San Francisco, this season has been pushed to the brink of lacking the playoffs. The Niners had been met a chilly splash of actuality on Sunday, shedding 20-17 at dwelling to the Seattle Seahawks, their first loss to Seattle since 2021. The loss dropped them to 5-5, however with losses to the Rams and Cardinals, they’re useless final within the division, in a 12 months the place they had been speculated to as soon as once more be on the high of the convention.
Let’s go beneath the hood and determine why precisely this crew hasn’t been the identical 49ers crew we all know.
The offense has been … bizarre
In the event you go by counting stats, the Niners’ offense has been one of many higher ones within the sport. Second in yards per recreation, tied for eighth in factors per recreation, fifth in EPA/play, and sixth in Success Fee. Nevertheless, the offense hasn’t felt prefer it’s been straightforward to return by. If you watch a Kyle Shanahan offense in San Francisco, you’re usually working beneath the idea that they’ll be capable of generate straightforward offense by way of the run recreation and in Yards After the Catch. The mixture of Shanahan’s scheme and the MonStars (WRs Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey and FB Kyle Juszczyk) made it inconceivable to defend them. Any checkdown may very well be became an eight yard achieve, and any eight yard achieve may very well be a landing.
Effectively, the YAC hasn’t precisely been hitting the identical this season. This season the Niners are twenty fourth in complete Yards after the Catch and and twenty fifth in YAC/completion, per Professional Soccer Reference, means down from being first within the NFL in that very same metric in 2023. The dynamic skill for each checkdown to be a menace has considerably gone away this season for San Francisco, closing the margin for error this crew has.
This margin will get particularly shut within the pink zone, the place the Niners have fully fallen aside. This season San Francisco is fifteenth in EPA per play within the pink space and 14th in Success Fee, noticeably down from fifth in EPA per play and first in Success Fee within the pink zone in 2023. Because the MonStars have worn down attributable to harm (Kittle didn’t play within the loss to Seattle, McCaffrey remains to be getting again to 100%, Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, and Samuel has missed time with harm/illness), the offense simply hasn’t felt like they’ve been capable of hit the simple buttons as usually as they’ve been capable of.
Take this play towards Seattle, for instance. Though San Francisco is a methods away from the tip zone, you usually count on McCaffrey to make somebody miss and get greater than 5 yards. He’s working an possibility route and goes to the area, however as soon as he’s there, doesn’t make anybody miss.
Examine this to 2023, the place McCaffrey is working an possibility route once more and has leverage to the skin and is ready to flip this into a giant constructive achieve. I’m not saying McCaffrey has misplaced a step, however the complete crew’s lack of ability to hit large on performs after the catch this season has made the margins a bit smaller this season.
I additionally suppose they haven’t been as capable of beat man protection as they was once. Final season they shredded the little man protection they confronted, posting a 63.44 complete EPA and 56.9% Optimistic Play Fee towards man protection (per Sports activities Info Options). This season, whereas nonetheless being within the high ten amongst NFL groups, they haven’t been almost as potent. By way of 10 video games they’ve already had 100 passing makes an attempt towards man protection (that they had 106 of these makes an attempt in 2023—complete), and solely generated a complete EPA of 8.35 and a forty five.7% Success Fee. Once more, not numbers to show your nostril up at however completely not what we count on from this core of gamers.
That is the place they miss Aiyuk and desperately want McCaffrey to return to what he was. They had been capable of shred man protection as a result of it meant you had been leaving McCaffrey in remoted conditions on a linebacker, or Aiyuk would shred on the skin. Final 12 months, Aiyuk had an unbelievable 1.01 EPA per goal towards man protection third in the complete NFL in that metric. He was behind George Kittle, who was at an absurd 1.11 EPA per goal towards man on 22 targets. This 12 months, their greatest receiver towards man is WR Jauan Jennings, who at a 0.69 isn’t dangerous, however there’s way more wrestle this season. Despite the fact that some catches are being made, there’s a lot much less explosion coming from this crew.
Which brings us to the QB. Hear, I’m not doing Brock Purdy discourse in 2024. It’s pointless to proceed to speak in the identical circles we’ve been speaking about him in for the final two years. What I’ll say is that he’s improved this 12 months in his scrambling skill to mitigate a few of the margin for error this season, but in addition can’t overcome these smaller margins by himself. Not each QB is Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, and Purdy must be helped out a bit.
There’s been quite a bit made concerning the Niners not altering protections or letting Purdy name audibles, however I simply don’t suppose that’s the case. Purdy has the identical quantity of freedom as most different QBs within the NFL in the case of “can”-ing performs (going from one playcall to the opposite playcall). The larger downside right here is an offensive line that hasn’t actually performed as much as commonplace. Trent Williams remains to be good, and rookie Dominick Puni is promising at proper guard, however in all places else there are main holes. You possibly can solely scheme your self away from a poorer offensive line for thus lengthy, and the Niners’ offense appears like they’re struggling to play the fitting notes collectively in crucial areas.
The defensive mind drain has lastly hit
For years, the San Francisco 49ers have been capable of reload their protection after shedding coordinators and high quality gamers to harm or free company. This 12 months it hasn’t been the identical case. Their protection has gone via main upheaval and “mind drain” on the defensive facet of the ball that it’s lastly taking a success on the unit’s success. They’re at the moment twelfth in defensive EPA per play allowed and seventeenth in Success Fee allowed, however these are each main steps again from being at or close to the highest of the league as we’re used to seeing them. The fixed upheaval on the coordinator spot, going from Robert Saleh, to Demeco Ryans, to Steve Wilks to now Nick Sorensen and Brandon Staley crafting the protection has taken this effectively coached unit to 1 that makes a bit extra errors than we’re used to seeing.
On high of that, the power to rebuild and reload the defensive roster has taken some hits. That is their 2023 roster, by way of ESPN’s Invoice Barnwell, and the quantity of snaps they’ve performed for the crew in 2024. In some unspecified time in the future the pattern of at all times shedding gamers has to take impact, and it appears to be like prefer it has for the Niners.
What is going on on with the 49ers?
1) Final 12 months’s protection has been shredded by accidents, departures, and growing old. Veterans they introduced in have not stood out (though Yetur Gross-Matos flashed final week). Mustapha has been a enjoyable discover, however plenty of snaps for underwhelming vet FAs.
— Invoice Barnwell (@billbarnwell.com) 2024-11-19T22:20:57.305Z
A serious sticking level has been their lack of ability to get strain exterior of Nick Bosa. When Bosa is on the sector, the Niners’ strain fee is 35.4%, which might tie them with the Minnesota Vikings for tenth in the complete league. With out Bosa it drops to twenty-eight%, placing them in between the Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars, who’re twenty ninth and thirtieth within the league, respectively.
The motley crew of Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Beal haven’t been constant sufficient to offer constant pop subsequent to Bosa, and it’s making their protection undergo. In addition they merely aren’t ok towards the run this 12 months, which is extra of a teambuilding factor than the rest. They’re twenty second in Speeding Success Fee allowed and twentieth in EPA/rush allowed and even decrease final 12 months, each main drops from being second in each classes in 2021. They’ve struggled to discover a true nostril deal with after DJ Jones left in free company (though rookie DT Evan Anderson has helped out in that space), and with the constant mind drain beginning to come via, they don’t have as a lot skill to beat it this season. Whereas the Niners’ offense has felt snakebitten by harm, their protection appears like some flaws in teambuilding coming dwelling to roost.
Now, I’m not going to be the one to doom and gloom the Niners. It’s laborious to say {that a} crew with Kyle Shanahan as their head playcaller and the expertise on offense goes to falter to finish this season. Nevertheless, they’ve video games on the street towards Inexperienced Bay, Arizona, Buffalo and Miami, together with dwelling tilts towards Detroit and the Los Angeles Rams to finish the season. In the event that they’re going to make the playoffs, it’ll should be going via a assassin’s row of opponents to wrap this season up.
Despite the fact that it’s not all doom and gloom, it does really feel like that is the ultimate trip for this model of the Niners. And whether it is, it’s much less a grand finale, and extra of a tragic swan tune.
