Sanju Samson, Rahul Dravid have little to no probability

The effects of the Indian Premier League (IPL) 2025 mega auction have been hurting the Rajasthan Royals (RR) massively. They lost the likes of Jos Buttler, Yuzvendra Chahal, and Trent Boult, among many other key players, and are now reeling in the bottom half of the IPL 2025 points table. Well, the Sanju Samson-led side technically has around just a 1% chance of qualifying for the IPL 2025 playoffs after RR’s loss to Delhi Capitals (DC) on April 16 and LSG on April 19.

RR’s run at IPL 2025 so far

Rajasthan dealt a huge blow when they lost Sanju Samson, the captain for the first three games. Riyan Parag was made the captain, and he led RR to their first win, against CSK, in the third game. The winning run continued when Samson came back as captain in a high-scoring game against the Punjab Kings. But that was it. The next two games saw them lose by comprehensive margins of 58 runs and 9 wickets against GT & RCB, respectively.

Now, against the Delhi Capitals, RR succumbed to their third consecutive defeat in an absolutely thrilling Super Over clash. That nail-biting loss to DC put RR’s qualification chances in the mud, as they now need basically a spotless second half of the tournament. They have won just two out of their nine matches.

RR Playoff chances, if they win 6 out of 7

Much like Chennai and SRH, the Rajasthan Royals’ road to the IPL 2025 playoffs is steep, but mathematically, it is still very possible. With only 2 wins from their first 8 matches, Sanju Samson’s side needs a serious turnaround. The simplest route? Win all of their remaining 6 matches. That will push them to 16 points — perhaps a guaranteed ticket to the playoffs. But to expect a perfect streak from a team battling inconsistency is more hopeful than practical.

Here’s how their path to the playoffs shapes up:

Sanju Samson has a difficult path ahead

Since the IPL’s expansion to 10 teams, 16 points have almost always ensured playoff qualification. If RR can manage 6 wins from their remaining 5 games, they’ll finish with 14 points — not enough to guarantee qualification. The margin for error is razor-thin.

RR’s playoff hopes have dimmed further after their loss to RCB. With only five matches left, they can at best reach 14 points, a total that may not be enough to guarantee a spot in the playoffs. The upcoming fixtures don’t get any easier, with crucial matches against GT and Mumbai Indians, both of whom are in great form. RR will need to pull off a miracle to win both these games and then hope to triumph in their remaining matches as well. Even then, their fate would depend on other teams’ results and a significant improvement in their net run rate. Given their current form, it’s tough to see RR making it to the playoffs.

Remaining IPL 2025 matches for Rajasthan Royals