MLB Over/Beneath Greatest Wager: Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays, April 13

Properly, there have been actually some nerve-wracking moments in yesterday’s Pirates-Reds Beneath, however fortunately, the wager holds true and continues this sturdy begin to the season. By no means get content material. 

To conclude the foremost league marketing campaign’s third week, we’re going to move to George M. Steinbrenner Subject for the primary time. That’s the place the Tampa Bay Rays are enjoying their dwelling video games this yr (and past?) after the wreckage Tropicana Subject endured final fall by the hands of Hurricane Milton they usually’ll be taking over the Atlanta Braves right this moment within the sequence finale after each golf equipment cut up the primary two matchups.

Identical to with the Athletics enjoying in a brand new ballpark in Sacramento, it is best to wish to take a wait-and-see method in noting how these new venues play out, not less than within the early going. In spite of everything, this can be a spring coaching stadium – belonging to the New York Yankees – we’re coping with and it’s curious to watch how the video games play out throughout common season months within the usually scorching Florida air. 

Keep in mind, the Rays and Miami Marlins each host motion indoors at their regular dwelling fields, so the usually hotter Florida air isn’t actually an element inside a season – till now. 

Tampa Bay has had 11 dwelling video games to date and people contests produced a complete of 84 runs mixed – or a mean of seven.6 runs per sport. So, nothing actually out of the peculiar, not less than till we attain the warmer summer season portion of the slate.

That hopefully means for now we will nonetheless simply give attention to deciphering the pitching matchup to be able to rating a duke on the betting report. And there’s one on faucet Sunday afternoon.

Reigning Nationwide League Cy Younger award winner Chris Sale is beginning for the Braves and that’s one thing that ought to all the time stick out straight away. Regardless of carrying a stunning 6.75 ERA by means of his first three begins, we all know the eight-time All Star is significantly better than that and can start bringing that quantity down very quickly. Almost certainly starting right this moment with an opponent on the opposite aspect whom he’s had distinctive success in opposition to. 

In 25 profession video games (23 begins) dealing with the Rays, Sale is 11-7 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Extra impressively, he’s punched out 206 batters in these outings, spanning 148 innings. That’s a strikeout fee of 12.5 Okay/9. 

One thing very important that may assist the 6-foot-6 southpaw assemble one other such efficiency is that Tampa Bay has struggled mightily when taking over a left-handed pitcher. They’re one in every of 9 groups in baseball hitting beneath the Mendoza Line (.200) in opposition to lefties and the Rays’ .586 OPS as a crew on this division ranks them twenty fourth in baseball. 

Tampa’s lineup presents a good matchup for Sale to start normalizing his statistics. 

The harder a part of this wager, nevertheless, figures to return from the opposite starter, Joe Boyle. The hard-throwing right-hander is making his season (and crew) debut. 

Boyle got here from the Athletics within the offseason and did present some worthwhile potential beforehand. He has a capability to build up the strikeouts – however with that comes some shoddy command.

General, although, I do purchase into the 25-year-old as somebody that may put numerous it collectively and set up himself on the main league degree. Boyle’s abilities have been actually on show by means of spring coaching, by which he crafted a 3.52 ERA throughout 15 1/3 innings whereas notching 21 Ks.

A kind of outings got here with Atlanta opposing him – and it was with their ‘A’ batting order in motion, too. Boyle fared fairly nicely, retiring the primary six hitters he confronted earlier than permitting pair of runs with two outs in his last inning. He shackled all 4 of Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna to a mixed 1-for-8 with 4 strikeouts on the day. 

Atlanta is second from the underside in runs scored (46) this yr, and whereas they seemingly aren’t going to stay anchored down there, it’s nonetheless one thing to lean on when it comes to avoiding a crooked output. If Boyle can simply contribute one thing passable like he’s able to, this underneath wager will probably be in good fingers. 

Choose: UNDER 8.5 (-118, FanDuel) 

2025 MLB Betting Report: 10-6-1, +3.23 models 

Over/Unders: 9-4-1 

Props: 1-1 

MLs: 0-1 

Yesterday’s End result: Pirates-Reds Beneath 8.5 (WIN) 

Every wager graded as if it have been to win one unit until in any other case indicated. 

Comply with me on X (previously Twitter) @MattZylbert for potential extra picks.