The Falcons have loads using on their sign caller.
After drafting QB Michael Penix Jr. within the first spherical in 2024 (to the shock of everybody, together with myself) after signing QB Kirk Cousins, it appears like that is Penix Jr.’s workforce going ahead. A lot to the purpose that Cousins isn’t displaying as much as OTAs as he appears for a brand new place to earn beginning minutes.
The Falcons’ hopes within the quick and long run depend on Penix, who received the beginning nod to complete the season. With potential extensions developing for WR Drake London and different stalwart gamers on the roster, realizing what you bought at QB goes to be enormous for the Falcons in 2025.
So, what precisely have they got? Effectively if we glance by way of all of Penix Jr.’s tape final season, there’s some promising stuff in there.
On the floor, Penix Jr.’s last rookie statline appears fairly pedestrian: 58.1% completion share, three touchdowns and three interceptions and one dashing landing, however his superior stats look significantly better (largely due to the smaller pattern measurement, but it surely works right here). He completed tied for tenth in EPA per play amongst all QBs with a minimum of 100 passing makes an attempt, seventeenth in Success Fee and a ten.22 Common Depth of Goal (aDOT) per Sumer Sports activities. In response to Sports activities Info Options, he completed 14th in Growth Fee, performs that received over a 1 in EPA, but in addition completed with the bottom Bust Fee of all gamers with over 100 makes an attempt. So he was capable of mitigate catastrophic performs whereas additionally maximizing explosives. Fairly good, proper? For a Falcons workforce that wanted the explosives within the passing sport after Cousins couldn’t throw the ball greater than 15 yards downfield and the power to mitigate stress (Penix Jr’s sack charge when pressured was 4 factors decrease than Kirk Cousins), Penix Jr’s capacity to get the ball downfield and work the sideline helped them end weeks 16-18 seventh in EPA per play, in comparison with 14th from weeks 1-15. Let’s see the place Penix Jr. helped this offense, and the way far he can take them with some enhancements.
Let’s begin off with this: Penix has a extremely good understanding for cornerback leverage when concentrating on throws on the surface, and the requisite arm power to suit these passes into small home windows alongside the sideline. His wonky mechanics and launch don’t actually issue into throws he can step into and lace on the sideline, the place he’s far more snug making one defender transfer. He made a handful of bonkers throws towards the Panthers to finish the season, however a pair actually hammer residence his consolation throwing to the perimeters of the sphere. This primary one is a bench idea to his proper, an out route by TE Kyle Pitts adopted by a nook route by WR Drake London. Penix Jr. drops again and sees the nook in Cowl 2 hammering down arduous on Pitts’ out route, so with out hesitation he rips this nook to London, who has the leverage on the protection to the surface.
The subsequent one that actually stood out to me was a pair performs later, the place he laces a throw downfield to WR Ray-Ray McCloud vs Cowl 3. Penix Jr is studying the leverage of the surface nook, who they need to bait in with a deep curl route as McCloud runs a giant nook route. The minute the DB jumps on the curl after which hesitates, Penix Jr lets it rip, showcasing some good velocity on this move that floats proper in over the shoulder. It is a sick ass throw, man.
I additionally assume someplace Penix Jr actually stood out to me is in his diagnosing of stress and having the correct responses to blitzes. After a myriad of accidents in his school profession, Penix Jr isn’t precisely essentially the most nimble man, however he wins along with his arm or along with his thoughts on the subject of stress. I used to be pleasantly stunned with Penix Jr’s responses to stress coming so shortly. It is a small play, however towards the Giants he was capable of work towards mugged and murky appears, discovering solutions up and down the sphere. On this one, he sees the nickel stress and is aware of that in the event that they’re bringing one from the sphere, they should drop one to the boundary. As quickly because the bottom EDGE drops, London comes beneath for a simple chain mover.
Penix Jr’s capacity to keep away from catastrophe performs and create huge ones from the pocket is basically promising going ahead for the Falcons. Even on his three interceptions, two of them have been on dropped passes the place it cleanly hit the receiver’s palms earlier than doing the normal Falcons factor of going on to the opposite workforce. The truth that he’s capable of do all of this and function the offense to this extent has me excited for the ceiling of the offense.
Now, right here comes me being a little bit of a downer: whereas Penix Jr confirmed lots of thrilling instruments final season, he nonetheless does have a methods to go earlier than turning into a high tier QB (which is okay). One factor that stood out on the high was how huge the drop was between his EPA per play and Success Fee. If EPA per play measures the explosiveness, Success Fee measures the routine, how typically you will get first downs. Penix Jr dropping from tenth to seventeenth after we have a look at his EPA per play vs Success Fee triggered me to boost my eyebrows a bit. Why this quantity drops? I’ve two theories, each may be fixable. The primary one is straightforward: I believe generally Penix Jr. goes for the fastball when an offspeed is critical.
What meaning is he has the arm power to fireside in passes alongside the sidelines like proven earlier, however when there’s want for extra contact passes and feathered throws he tends to sail them excessive as a result of he’s throwing it so rattling arduous. There’s been a little bit of mechanical inconsistency along with his passing within the higher and decrease physique that result in some misplaced throws. He completed 2024 thirty first in SIS’ On-Goal Fee metric, however I believe ironing out some inconsistencies along with his ball pace might assist him out loads. On passes like this one, the place it’s a fast sport goal to London, Penix Jr simply zips it exterior making an attempt to steer him away from the protection. A part of that is only a younger QB making his 4th begin making an attempt to construct a rapport, however I additionally assume a few of the inaccuracies stem from making an attempt to throw this 100 miles an hour. . After speaking with my colleague and QB knowledgeable Mark Schofield, I believe Penix Jr might most likely clear up this space of his sport by permitting his again leg to observe by way of, which helps with rotation.
This in-breaking route can also be an instance of needing a bit extra contact on the move, that Penix Jr. simply dirts. It’s a pleasant resolution and the receiver is open, however discover Penix Jr’s again leg kinda cease on the observe by way of, making him lose a few of that rotational drive, inflicting the ball to die early. These small footwork issues could make passes take huge dips, and it’s one thing Penix Jr goes to want to enhance as a way to get to the place the Falcons need him to be.
One other factor that caught my eye that restricted his Success Fee final season: Penix Jr doesn’t actually throw over the center of the sphere. Once more, restricted pattern measurement, however of Penix Jr’s 105 passing makes an attempt, 44 of them came visiting the center of the sphere, about 42%. Examine this to Cousins, who had about 53% of his passes goal the center of the sphere. This was someplace Penix Jr additionally wasn’t tremendous snug popping out of Washington, and whenever you see his Success Fee numbers, it is smart. The throws alongside the sideline may be extra explosive, sure, however these are naturally decrease share throws. Not as a result of the protection out there may be more durable, however as a result of you must take care of the sidelines, the twelfth defender. These decrease share throws typically get traded in for increased share passes over the center of the sphere, however for Penix Jr, it’s flipped. This may hopefully enhance with extra reps, however I believe the place Penix Jr can enhance in the course of the sphere is along with his timing. We’ve seen him throw center of the sphere with some success within the NFL, however as a result of home windows transfer so shortly, he has to both work faster or use his eyes to control defenders higher. There are two passes that is likely to be the proper instance of this, the primary one being a landing he threw towards the Washington Commanders. It’s Cowl 4, and Penix needs to work this bender to Pitts. From the tip zone angle, watch his head look off the protection to that facet, then whip proper again and throw this missile for a TD. That’s huge boy QB work over a area the place he isn’t as snug.
Now, take this one towards the Panthers. Completely different protection, because the Panthers spin from 2-high into Cowl 3 with weakside rotation down from the protection. You possibly can see from the facet angle that Penix Jr will get a bit lax along with his eyes, not making the protection transfer and forcing this throw to be tremendous tight. These issues may be incompletions now, however with extra tape they might result in interceptions so Penix Jr goes to want extra reps the place he manipulates protection over the center of the sphere.
After I began watching Michael Penix Jr tape from his (albeit restricted) reps in the course of the common season, I anticipated to see somebody who had extra limitations to his sport than I discovered. What I discovered was a younger QB who might thread needles on the surface, who has a pair extra areas of progress that’ll assist him take his sport to the subsequent degree. One of the best factor Penix Jr has going for him is that I believe the playcalling and playmakers being the identical round him will assist him develop. Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson is a rising star within the business, and with assist from stars like RB Bijan Robinson and a talented receiving core, Penix Jr can take that leap.
The Falcons positive want him to.
