The ghost of Pat Gelsinger hung closely over Intel‘s fab plant in Arizona earlier this month as journalists from around the globe gathered for Intel’s annual Tech Tour, and I can inform you now that he was laughing his ass off in triumph.
Gelsinger, Intel’s former CEO, was unceremoniously jettisoned by Intel’s board late final yr, and whereas he technically resigned, it was broadly reported that if he hadn’t, he’d have been fired. Throughout his tenure, which some within the enterprise world known as “disastrous“, Gelsinger guess closely on chip manufacturing by way of Intel Foundry to the tune of tens of billions of {dollars}.
These investments, in flip, ultimately produced headline-making billions of {dollars} in losses on Intel’s stability sheet, as gear bills far outpaced income from chip gross sales. Add to that, Intel “missed” the AI revolution that despatched Nvidia hovering into the multi-trillion greenback membership on Wall Avenue by not having an AI chip of its personal to compete with Nvidia.
By betting on manufacturing, Gelsinger misplaced his job, and the proverbial sharks from Wall Avenue to Reddit began circling Intel as discuss swirled of a breakup of the corporate to put it aside from Gelsinger’s foolhardy emphasis on a producing foundry to compete with TSMC.
Having seen Intel’s newest chip fabrication plant first-hand, nevertheless, I can A) completely see how Gelsinger blew by way of tens of billions of {dollars}; B) say with out hesitation that the primary product to return off the road because of that funding, Intel Panther Lake, goes to be an enormous win for Intel; and C) hope that Gelsinger enjoys seeing all of his critics confirmed phenomenally unsuitable.
First, let’s discuss Panther Lake
The primary client chips to return off the road at Fab 52 in Arizona, the place Intel’s new 18A fabrication node is housed, would be the new Intel Core Extremely sequence 3 chips, previously codenamed Panther Lake.
These chips are designed for laptops in addition to lighter-duty AIO and small type issue PCs, simply as Intel Lunar Lake was earlier than it. What’s completely different right here, although, is that there’s a lot of recent expertise backing up these chips that nobody else is utilizing, comparable to bottom energy supply and an off-die interconnected GPU that enables for better GPU core scaling.
The previous permits energy to be delivered from a layer under the transistors, granting much more design freedom than you get with the frontside energy supply utilized by TSMC and Samsung, and thus Intel’s opponents. It is a small change, nevertheless it means that you can scale your chip in ways in which weren’t potential earlier than utilizing interconnects, and has the potential to enhance energy effectivity and sign integrity total.
For the GPU, it is going to additionally characteristic a brand new Intel Xe3 GPU structure that helps multi-frame technology, which, when paired with Intel XeSS upscaling, has the potential to show just about any thin-and-light ultrabook right into a funds gaming laptop computer.
I received to check out a Panther Lake-powered laptop computer with Painkiller 3 for a spell, and even with out body technology, the sport was simply clearing a 50 fps minimal at 1080p with XeSS set to High quality on the best graphics settings potential. Granted, it is one sport, however it’s a fast-paced shooter, and there was zero perceived latency whereas I performed with MFG, and the sport was clearing about 140 fps on common.
There is not a skinny and lightweight laptop computer available on the market that may do that proper now—particularly not the MacBook Air, the laptop computer that Panther Lake is particularly gunning for—and most video games available on the market aren’t fast-paced first-person shooters, so MFG will likely be an enormous promote for these units.
As for non-gaming efficiency, I have not benchmarked any of those programs myself, so I can not offer you scores, however even Intel Lunar Lake chips are virtually even in real-world use towards a MacBook Air with M4, say no matter you need concerning the numerous design variations between the 2 ecosystems.
Microsoft Phrase opens just about the identical on each programs, encoding video off both CPU takes about the identical period of time, and whereas the MacBook Air basic will get higher battery life, Lunar Lake chips have closed that hole sufficient that you actually need to have a really particular motive to maintain your laptop computer unplugged for twenty-four hours straight frequently for the distinction to matter.
There’s not going to be sufficient right here to get a Mac person to modify to a Home windows laptop computer, however no chip goes to get an Apple fan to modify. What it does although is make it so Home windows customers haven’t got a motive to modify to a Mac, or, most likely extra importantly, a Qualcomm Snapdragon X-powered Home windows laptop computer.,
With all that stated, although, I did get to see inside efficiency information from Intel engineers that places Panther Lake above Intel Arrow Lake performance-wise, whereas protecting the power effectivity of Lunar Lake, which is a hell of a combo if it holds up. I will not know till I check these chips myself after CES 2026, clearly, however from what I noticed, Intel should not be too far off from these efficiency claims.
And whereas Apple could but retain the title for finest single-core efficiency on Geekbench among the many skinny and lights, that hole will not less than get rather a lot smaller even with the Apple M5 chip, which can nonetheless be utilizing TSMC’s 3nm node versus Intel’s 1.8nm, since TSMC has struggled to get its N2 node up and operating on schedule.
Intel 18A: Gelsinger’s gamble may grow to be Intel’s windfall
A lot of Intel’s future goes to depend upon the success of Intel Foundry’s 18A processor fabrication node and the merchandise produced on this node. Panther Lake, Intel Nova Lake (Intel’s next-gen desktop processors), and Intel Clearwater Forest (Intel’s new Xeon 6+ datacenter chips), are all 18A fabbed, however in the end Intel’s success is not relying on whether or not these chips outsell the competitors, however whether or not these chips persuade AMD, Nvidia, Qualcomm, and sure, even Apple, to fabricate their chips on Intel’s nodes slightly than TSMC’s or Samsung’s.
The guess that Gelsinger made, that Intel may manufacture chips as superior as TSMC’s within the US, value him his job. To materially meet up with TSMC by way of course of expertise was by no means going to be low cost, and Wall Avenue would a lot slightly Intel had merely outsourced its chipmaking to TSMC solely slightly than make investments tens of billions to construct up the chip crops to do it itself.
Gelsinger made these investments, although, and touring Intel’s Fab 52 in Arizona was revelatory. I wasn’t allowed to take footage contained in the plant itself, sadly, however the plant was already buzzing with manufacturing. Clients are already spending cash to fab their chips on Intel 18A, and safety round who these prospects are is understandably very tight, as is the suppliers Intel makes use of, what equipment is getting used, and so forth.
I am certain a number of company spies and even overseas intelligence brokers would have paid absolutely anything to get the tour I did, and I perceive why. Intel 18A may nicely be essentially the most superior course of expertise ever devised by people, with an Intel product supervisor telling me that the tech concerned in etching the picture of the processors in query is the equal of an individual standing on the Moon with a laser pointer and hitting the tip of somebody’s outstretched finger at sea stage on Earth.. The machine that does this, in the meantime, is completely monumental, and it was operating whereas I used to be there.
By now, everybody ought to know the aphorism that the important thing to earning profits throughout a gold rush is to be the one promoting the shovels. It is why Nvidia went from being a profitable however comparatively mid-sized maker of graphics playing cards that solely actually mattered to avid gamers to a world-striding company behemoth with a valuation within the $4T vary nearly in a single day.
They do not make the AI merchandise like ChatGPT; they make the GPUs that energy the AI merchandise., and they also’re getting a reduce of each AI product hitting the market.
However even then, Nvidia would not truly make its personal chips. It has to outsource the precise fabrication of its GPUs to a chip foundry and competitors for manufacturing time on essentially the most superior course of nodes has been fierce in recent times, and it is solely getting extra intense as AI demand grows.
From what I noticed with Intel 18A, although, chips are already rolling off the traces, and there appears to be greater than sufficient capability to begin absorbing already sky-high demand in addition to room within the facility to develop manufacturing even additional if demand warrants it. And given that every one these chips are manufactured within the US, they will not be topic to the sorts of tariffs that might snap again on TSMC’s or Samsung’s chips at a second’s discover, probably driving up prices for the top merchandise they energy.
In the end, Intel Foundry’s 18A course of node seems like an enormous win for Intel, even when nothing else adjustments, and if issues do change, Intel’s place as a US-based fab may give it decisive benefits over its abroad rivals.
As for the AI bubble we’re presently in, it is going to pop someday, for certain, and a number of that AI demand will dry up. However the Dot Com bubble nonetheless produced winners like Amazon and Cisco, as a result of these corporations produced precise merchandise and offered precise, helpful companies.
So superior semiconductors aren’t going to be in much less demand after the AI bubble pops, there are many prospects from authorities businesses to huge enterprise who will want the quickest chips potential, and so the present AI bubble is prone to be the on-ramp to sustainability that Intel Foundry wants proper now, nevertheless it’s success is not tied to that bubble the best way OpenAI’s is.
In the meantime, none of that is even factoring within the chance that Intel may even have created essentially the most superior course of node expertise on the earth, whereas additionally locking on this place for not less than half a decade, if not longer, one thing that’s going to attract in enterprise by itself no matter different components.
All of that is actual cash, huge cash, and Gelsinger’s guess on Foundry seems prefer it’s about to pay large dividends for Intel within the years forward.
Will Apple, AMD, and Nvidia take an opportunity on Intel 18A?
Now the one remaining query is whether or not Apple, AMD, and Nvidia will get on board and use Intel Foundry’s companies for his or her chips, and admittedly, it isn’t even actually a query at this level. In fact they are going to.
They might not prefer it, however there’s solely a lot superior course of node capability on the earth, and the one different two foundries able to sub-3nm manufacturing are TSMC and Samsung.
TSMC’s most superior 2nm fab, which can possible hit manufacturing within the second half of 2026, is on the island of Taiwan, and TSMC has stated it plans to deliver it to the US sooner or later in 2026 or later, however that is very questionable at this level. So if Intel’s chips are in reality extra superior than a TSMC node that hasn’t even hit manufacturing but, even when TSMC builds 2nm within the US, it is going to nonetheless lag behind the chips Intel is making proper now.
Taiwan, in the meantime, could or is probably not a territory of mainland China, relying on who you ask within the US authorities. China, alternatively, will completely inform you that Taiwan is its territory, and the Chinese language authorities has not dominated out utilizing navy motion to deliver Taiwan below its direct management. The potential of a sudden disruption within the chip provide popping out of Taiwan is not a fantastical thought, particularly given how hostile the US has been to China’s expertise sector in recent times, and the promise of TSMC producing chips within the US to fulfill demand is unlikely to develop the best way Intel’s critics hope.
In the meantime, the opposite main foundry, Samsung, is in South Korea, a nation nonetheless technically at warfare with North Korea, a nuclear-armed nation led by an authoritarian ruling household that many would characterize as diplomatically unstable and which repeatedly threatens its neighbor to the south with a resumption of full-scale warfare. In the event you’re on the lookout for a steady provider of superior semiconductors in an unsure world, nicely, placing all of your chips on Samsung if you cannot depend on TSMC Taiwan would not appear like an amazing guess.
The prospect of armed battle breaking out in both of those locations would not look possible, however this stuff by no means look possible till they occur, and the danger for tech corporations relying completely on TSMC or Samsung may flip existential in a single day. Intel 18A carries none of that potential threat, and if Panther Lake, Nova Lake, and Clearwater Forest show that Intel 18A is nearly as good as Intel claims, it might be enterprise malpractice to not hedge that threat by contracting with Intel as nicely.
What’s extra, demand for these chips is just going up, and each Samsung and TSMC’s crops can solely produce so many chip wafers in a given day. There’s already a provide bottleneck that may’t meet demand, in order that overflow goes to have to maneuver elsewhere, and Intel 18A is the logical second and even third selection for those who actually favor TSMC and/or Samsung.
In fact, it’s going to be a bitter tablet for AMD and particularly Apple to swallow, given the depth of their relationships and rivalry with Intel over time. However with the uncertainty of tariffs and provide being what they’re, they are going to each ultimately contract with Intel for 18A and Intel’s next-gen 14A when that comes on-line later within the decade.
Kicking and screaming, completely, however ultimately, they will not have a selection within the matter, and Intel will likely be getting paid for each a type of chips, regardless of whose branding they carry once they hit the market.
I hope Pat Gelsinger is having fun with himself
It is not fairly often I sing the praises of rich industrialists and enterprise leaders like Pat Gelsinger, however I do make an exception on this case.
Standard knowledge these days would have informed Gelsinger to spend these many billions of {dollars} he invested in Intel Foundry into one thing like inventory buybacks or another paper-moving monetary maneuver to prop up Intel’s inventory value to make Wall Avenue traders blissful.
This might have been a horrible transfer for Intel, although, particularly as it’s shedding an increasing number of market share to extra ‘nimble’ rivals who outsourced the precise making of their chips to TSMC. The traditional knowledge on this case was a recipe for Intel’s gradual decline into irrelevance whereas stripping the corporate naked to promote the copper wire out of its metaphorical (and probably literal) partitions.
It wasn’t a straightforward name for a CEO to show round and make investments an ungodly sum of cash in upfront prices (about $30B+ in whole) to construct out a world-class fab plant with Intel 18A, realizing that the return on that funding would solely start after a number of years. Gelsinger did simply that, although, and sadly, he received pressured out of the corporate simply earlier than the harvest was due.
I can not inform you how nicely the brand new Intel Core Extremely sequence 3 chips will find yourself promoting ultimately, however I can say that from what I’ve seen, these are rattling good chips. Higher than an Apple M5? The jury’s nonetheless out, not less than till we get each of them in hand to check out ourselves. What issues, although, is that no matter whether or not they’re the perfect, second, or third-best chips available on the market, they’ll be very aggressive, they usually had been constructed in-house, and that very same course of expertise is up on the market for anybody to make use of.
The identical course of expertise behind the Intel Core Extremely sequence 3 may find yourself making the Apple M6 a considerably higher chip than what we’re set to get from the M5, which is reportedly a 3nm TSMC chip, and even powering the Nvidia GeForce RTX 60-series playing cards (if these ever grow to be a factor) or Nvidia Rubin datacenter AI chips. Whether or not Intel’s chips outsell everybody else is not actually the purpose. In the event you’re making everybody else’s chips and getting a reduce of each sale, does it matter that they are outselling your individual in-house product? You are still making financial institution regardless.
Way back to March 2025, Nvidia was reportedly operating a number of check samples on Intel 18A to gauge its efficiency, just for Nvidia to take a position $5B into Intel simply final month. Neither Nvidia nor Intel would verify or deny Nvidia planning to make use of the brand new node for future merchandise, however the writing is form of on the wall right here. Hell, even AMD is in talks with Intel about fabbing their chips on 18A. What a world.
For all this, Intel has former CEO Gelsinger to thank. Whether or not they do or not would not actually matter, however I hope different trade leaders take some inspiration from what Intel is ready to do and notice that investing in innovation is price the price, regardless of how a lot it spooks the fits in accounting.
I additionally hope that Gelsinger is sitting on a seaside someplace with a cool cocktail with an umbrella, having fun with the truth that everybody goes to must admit that he was proper all alongside.
