4 explanation why we may be overreacting to no Cinderella groups advancing to the Candy 16.
Yearly there’s a storyline that develops from the primary week of the NCAA event that dominates the nationwide sports activities dialog for these three days that separate the second spherical and the Candy 16. Usually, play resumes on Thursday, the main target returns to the courtroom, and the “huge story” from the week earlier than morphs into countless discussions in regards to the Ultimate 4 earlier than it disappears without end.
This yr’s first week huge story could have a bit longer of a shelf-life.
The subject, in fact, is NIL and the switch portal eliminating Cinderella groups from the dance, and the ensuing query of whether or not or not she’s ever going to return.
Contemplating the outcomes of the primary week, the dialog was unavoidable.
Not solely did energy convention chalk reign supreme through the event’s opening week, but it surely do at a historic stage.
Each high 4 seed superior out of the event’s first spherical for the primary time since 2017 and simply the fourth time within the trendy period of the occasion. The typical margin of victory within the spherical of 64 was the best of all-time.
The insanity solely acquired extra predictable within the second spherical, with zero groups seeded increased than tenth advancing to the event’s second weekend for the primary time since 2007. Energy convention groups symbolize the whole lot of the Candy 16 for the primary time ever, and a document low of solely 4 whole conferences (the 4 strongest) are represented within the second weekend. The earlier low was seven conferences.
The Large Ten received its first 10 video games of the event. No convention had ever carried out that earlier than. The SEC despatched seven groups to the Candy 16. No convention had ever carried out that earlier than.
Put merely, the haves of the game have dominated this yr’s event at ranges beforehand not seen.
The simple conclusion from all of that is additionally the only: Two conferences have more cash than any two conferences have had within the historical past of school sports activities. The monetary hole between the facility conferences and the mid/low main conferences has by no means been this huge. And the brand new switch and NIL guidelines open the door for the faculties with all the cash to have the most effective gamers, the most effective coaches and the most effective the whole lot else on an annual foundation.
TLDR: The Cinderella is already useless. The 2025 event is simply the primary time everybody may see the corpse.
The concept a number of SEC vs. Large Ten regional semifinals and the closest factor to a Cinderella being a gaggle of former 5-stars coached by John Calipari goes to be the brand new regular in faculty basketball could wind up being solely correct. However let’s have a look at the explanation why perhaps that is an overreaction.
Cause 1: It’s one yr
Positive, the portal and NIL have grown more and more extra necessary since their inception, but it surely’s not like they weren’t across the earlier two years.
We’re just below 24 months faraway from watching a Fifth-seeded San Diego State staff from the Mountain West and a Ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic staff from Convention USA battling it out within the Ultimate 4. That event additionally noticed the second 16 over 1 upset within the event’s historical past, Furman stun Virginia on the buzzer within the first spherical, and 15-seed Princeton crash the Candy 16.
A yr later, we had Yale, Grand Canyon, James Madison and Oakland pull first spherical stunners. Three of these 4 coming in opposition to energy convention opponents.
Perhaps we have to anticipate proof past a single event to attract any sweeping conclusions about the way forward for March Insanity on this new period.
Cause 2: It’s as a lot about convention consolidation as anything
Quite a bit has been product of simply 4 conferences being represented within the event’s second weekend. That’s comprehensible. The truth that the earlier document low was seven is jarring.
It’s additionally necessary to notice that simply 4 conferences being represented can also be no less than partially as a result of most up-to-date serving to of convention realignment.
Two years in the past, BYU was a member of the West Coast Convention. Two years in the past, Houston was a member of the American Athletic Convention.
Each these applications, significantly Houston, have been doing fairly properly of their previous houses.
Cause 3: One shot, one inch, one name can change a complete narrative
The “Cinderella is useless” speaking factors beforehand laid out scream fairly loudly.
Nevertheless, think about a world the place Maryland’s Derik Queen’s final second shot is 5 inches increased and it clangs off the rim as a substitute fantastically banking by means of the online (or … and don’t throw something at me right here … he’s known as for touring). On this very life like world, Colorado State’s presence instantly eviscerates the “no staff seeded worse than tenth” and “no staff from a non-power convention” speaking factors.
It’s nonetheless a chalky event, little question, however the “we’ve seen the top of main upsets on this occasion” speaking level loses a little bit steam.
Cause 4: This isn’t fairly as irregular as everyone seems to be making it out to be
Once you hear “first event with out a mid-major staff within the Candy 16 in a billion years,” certain, it’s an consideration grabber.
Once you look a little bit bit nearer and see that the one “mid-major” within the second weekends of the 2016 and 2017 tournaments was Gonzaga, and that the one “mid-majors” within the second weekend of the 2019 event have been the Zags and Houston, properly, it resonates a bit much less.
The massive guys are dominating the second weekend this yr, however the huge guys have dominated the second weekend in most years.
One very last thing, simply because we didn’t have a 13 by means of 16 seed advance this yr doesn’t imply that the little guys struck out utterly. This event nonetheless noticed two groups from the Mountain West advance in the identical yr for the primary time since 2010, it noticed McNeese State from the Southland topple Clemson from the ACC, and it noticed the Missouri Valley’s Drake Bulldogs take down Missouri from the massive, dangerous SEC.
Some years the insanity is just a bit extra sane than others.
Is Cinderella really useless? Perhaps. There’s actually proof to help the idea. However that proof is basically rooted within the outcomes of 4 days of basketball.
Perhaps she’s simply taking a breather.
