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The first deadly accident wherever on this planet involving a passenger jet in 2024 occurred on Christmas Day.
Thirty-eight passengers and crew died when Azerbaijan Airways flight J2-8243 from the airline’s hub at Baku to Grozny, the capital of Russia‘s Chechnya, crashed in need of Aktau airport in Kazakhstan; 29 survived.
“We’ll always remember the beloved individuals we misplaced within the crash of the Embraer 190 plane,” stated Azerbaijan Airways in a press release posted on-line on Boxing Day.
A survivor of the crash who’s now in hospital, Subhonkul Rakhimov, informed Reuters he “thought the airplane was going to crumble” and that it was appearing “drunk” after a loud bang erupted. Mr Rakhimov started reciting prayers and making ready for the top after the loud noise, he stated on a video hyperlink from his hospital mattress.
Russian air defences are alleged to have downed the airplane, 4 sources with information of early findings in Azerbaijan’s investigation informed Reuters information company. It comes after the pro-government AnewZ information station cited Azerbaijan officers as saying shrapnel from a Russian missile was accountable.
They allege the stricken plane was then denied permission to land at close by airports in Russia and urged to move throughout the Caspian Sea to Aktau.
The Azerbaijani information service stated: “Presumably, this suggestion was given for one goal: for the airplane to fall into the Caspian Sea, all witnesses could be killed and the airplane would sink.”
On Friday, Azerbaijan Airways stated preliminary investigations confirmed the airplane had skilled “exterior and technical interference” earlier than the crash.
A army professional informed Euronews that it’s tough to imagine something apart from an air-defence missile being the trigger with out “critical proof”.
However Russia has performed down the accusations, with its aviation watchdog suggesting an early investigation had discovered the pilot determined to vary touchdown web site after “a collision with birds”. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated it could be fallacious to take a position on “hypotheses” earlier than the investigation is full.
If Russian air defence motion is discovered to have brought about the crash, shoot-downs shall be an ever extra widespread reason behind fatalities in aviation accidents.
At a time when air security is enhancing globally, army motion towards civil plane is an rising concern.
These are the important thing questions and solutions.
What do we all know concerning the flight?
Azerbaijan Airways flight J2-8243, operated with an Embraer 190 passenger jet, took off from Baku airport at 7.55am native time on 25 December 2024. On board: 62 passengers, three cabin crew and two pilots. Their nationalities:
- Azerbaijan 42
- Russia 16
- Kazakhstan 6
- Kyrgyzstan 3
Their vacation spot was Grozny, a distance of 301 miles from Baku.
The precise course of the flight is tough to determine from publicly obtainable sources due to GPS interference, which is prevalent in areas near Russian borders. However the airplane crossed the Caspian Sea from west to east on a extremely erratic course with broad variations in altitude.
As soon as on the east facet of the Caspian, above Kazakh territory, the airplane flew in a determine of eight and crashed two miles in need of Aktau airport – which is the place the pilots had been hoping to land. The flight had lasted two hours and quarter-hour.
The crash web site is 270 miles from the unique vacation spot, Grozny, and 240 miles from the place to begin, Baku.
The plane broke up on affect. Survivors had been within the rear a part of the cabin, which remained largely intact and didn’t catch hearth.
What about GPS interference?
World Positioning System (GPS) depends upon indicators obtained from a number of orbiting satellites. Whereas the information usually give world protection of location to inside a couple of metres, nations concerned in battle can both spoof GPS indicators, offering a false location, or jam the indicators.
Each strategies stop plane pilots from understanding their exact location by GPS. The follow additionally conceals plane places from open-source plane trackers equivalent to Flightradar24. This organisation has produced a map of GPS jamming places, which embrace the Center East, Russian borders, a lot of Ukraine and the northern Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea.
Evaluation of a collection of flight paths on flights to and from Grozny means that interference covers the area between the Dagestan coastal metropolis of Makhachkala and the Chechen capital.
Why did the airplane not land in Grozny as deliberate?
Numerous accounts have been given. They embrace fog, though proof of the prevailing climate doesn’t seem to help this. Others say that the airport was closed due to a Ukrainian drone assault, with planes diverted.
The one diverted flight on Christmas Day that The Unbiased has been capable of determine is of the crash plane.
Russia’s aviation watchdog, Rosaviatsia, stated heavy fog and an area alert concerning Ukrainian drones had pressured the flight had rerouted from its authentic vacation spot in Chechnya. It claimed different Russian airports had been supplied for the captain to land the airplane, however he selected Kazakhstan’s Aktau.
The watchdog has supplied help to the Kazakh and Azerbeijani investigations into the crash, it added.
What theories have emerged about the reason for the crash?
Images of the stays of the fuselage present many perforations per an anti-aircraft missile assault.
Initially Russia claimed the plane had struck a flock of birds, which led to the crash. However in line with Reuters information company, 4 sources with information of Azerbaijan’s investigation say the Russian Pantsir-S air-defence system was the reason for the crash.
One supply informed Reuters: “Nobody claims that it was performed on goal. Nevertheless, taking into consideration the established information, Baku expects the Russian facet to admit to the taking pictures down of the Azerbaijani plane.”
The airplane’s communications had been paralysed by digital warfare methods on the strategy to Grozny, the supply added.
An account reported by pro-government AnewZ information station says a drone assault on Grozny was confirmed on Christmas Day morning, and that airspace ought to have been closed to civilian plane.
The report says: “Our flight was additionally not given permission to land on the airports in Makhachkala and Mineralnye Vody.
“The disoriented crew of the flight, which was subjected to air defence hearth and digital warfare methods, was beneficial to land within the Kazakh metropolis of Aktau.
“Presumably, this suggestion was given for one goal: for the airplane to fall into the Caspian Sea, all witnesses could be killed and the airplane would sink.”
Navy professional Yan Matveyev informed Euronews that it’s “very tough to imagine” that something apart from an anti-aircraft missile was behind the assault with out “some critical proof”.
“However total, it appears just like the tail part of the airplane was broken by some missile fragments, most likely a Pantsir S-1 missile, or some anti-aircraft system with the identical small missiles that carry a not very massive warhead,” he added.
Mr Matveyev stated Ukrainian drones had been flying over Chechnya on the time and it was attainable the airplane had been hit by Russia’s air defences.
Are unintended shoot-downs widespread?
More and more so, and infrequently involving Russia and Ukraine. In October 2001, a Siberia Airways airplane from Tel Aviv to Novosibirsk was shot down over the Black Sea by a surface-to-air missile throughout a joint Russian-Ukrainian army train.
In July 2014 MH17, a Malaysia Airways flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur, was shot down over rebel-held Ukraine. A Russian anti-aircraft system was deployed towards the Boeing 777, killing all 298 on board.
In 2020, Iranian air defence personnel utilizing a “misaligned menace detection system” shot down a Ukraine Worldwide Boeing 737 quickly after departure from Tehran to Kyiv, costing the lives of all 176 on board.
What does the Kremlin say?
Very quickly after the crash, Russia’s civil aviation regulation stated preliminary data recommended the pilot had determined to make an emergency touchdown after a hen strike.
However a day later, a Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, stated: “It will be fallacious to place ahead any hypotheses earlier than the investigation’s conclusions. We, in fact, won’t do that, and nobody ought to do that. We have to wait till the investigation is accomplished.”
What different causes may there have been?
A large spectrum of prospects from a catastrophic failure of an plane system to a hijacking of some type. Chechen separatists have, up to now, attacked Russian planes.
