Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on India in response to its oil purchases from Russia may immediate Delhi to put aside its longstanding rivalry with China and discover nearer cooperation.
Trump introduced an extra 25 per cent tariff on Indian items on Wednesday, elevating the whole obligation to 50 per cent – among the many highest imposed on any US buying and selling companion. India criticised the transfer, calling it “unfair and unlucky”.
Trump has mentioned he’ll impose new sanctions on Russia, in addition to on nations that purchase its power exports, until Moscow takes steps to finish its three-and-a-half-year struggle with Ukraine. Russian president Vladimir Putin has proven no public signal of altering his stance, regardless of the deadline.
India’s overseas ministry mentioned it “will take all crucial steps to guard its nationwide pursuits” and added that the purchases had been pushed by market components and the power wants of India’s 1.4 billion folks.
Though India has been one in every of Washington’s key strategic companions in countering China’s dominance within the Asia-Pacific area, specialists warn that the most recent wave of US tariffs may immediate Delhi and Beijing to hunt nearer mutual ties.
Trump has additionally sought nearer ties with Pakistan, repeatedly claiming credit score for brokering a ceasefire between New Delhi and Islamabad – a declare that has been rejected by the Indian authorities. As well as, Trump’s taunt that India may purchase oil from its arch-enemy Pakistan has not gone down effectively in New Delhi, two Indian authorities sources informed reporters.
The brand new tariffs had been introduced simply as India’s prime minister Narendra Modi is getting ready for his first go to to China in additional than seven years – an engagement that implies a possible realignment in alliances. Modi will journey to China on the finish of the month, when leaders of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation are set to assemble for a summit in Tianjin from 31 August to 1 September.
India and China have sought this yr to restore ties that had been strained by the 2020 border skirmish between their respective militaries. This yr, each nations resumed the Mansarovar Yatra and ended the visa freeze for vacationers.
In recent times, successive US administrations – even Trump’s, throughout his first tenure as president – have strategically deepened ties with India, however analysts imagine the most recent actions danger dragging the connection to its lowest level because the US sanctioned India in 1998 over its nuclear assessments.
Trump has been accused of selectively concentrating on India for buying Russian oil whereas the EU continues to import liquefied pure fuel from Russia.
The commerce talks between India and the US broke down after 5 rounds of negotiations, over disagreement about opening India’s huge farm and dairy sectors to US imports, and stopping Russian oil purchases. Trump has intensified his criticism of Delhi and Moscow, labelling them “useless economies” in a social media submit final week.
“The following spherical of negotiations between the commerce groups in August will ask extra of India, however the query is, what would India give? The US aspect should additionally take into consideration India’s strategic significance as a China counterweight,” says Farwa Aamer, the director of south Asia initiatives on the Asia Society Coverage Institute.
She provides: “If US-India ties get strained additional, it solely helps China to keep up and increase its affect. It additionally makes a robust case for India to make sure that its personal relations with China stay steady.”
India’s rising proximity to China has sounded alarm bells within the Republican Social gathering, with Nikki Haley, the previous US ambassador to the UN, warning Trump towards burning the bridges which were rigorously constructed with New Delhi. “Don’t give China a move and burn a relationship with a robust ally like India,” she wrote on X (previously Twitter).
Trump’s government order on Wednesday didn’t point out China, which additionally imports Russian oil, however he later mentioned he may announce comparable additional tariffs on Chinese language items. Final week, US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent warned China that persevering with to buy Russian oil may set off new tariffs, as Washington prepares for the expiry of a US-China tariff ceasefire on 12 August.
When requested about concentrating on India, Trump hinted at a wider crackdown on nations importing Russian oil. “It’s solely been 8 hours. So let’s see what occurs. You’re going to see much more… You’re going to see so many secondary sanctions,” he informed reporters.
In 2024, bilateral commerce in items between the EU and Russia was value €67.5bn (£58.6bn), India’s overseas ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal mentioned this week. He claimed that European imports of LNG in 2024 reached a report 16.5 million tonnes, surpassing the final report of 15.21 million tonnes in 2022. Round 17 per cent of Europe’s fuel nonetheless comes from Russia, through the TurkStream pipeline and LNG shipments, in keeping with stories.
Jaiswal pushed again towards Washington’s claims, saying that India started importing from Russia as a result of conventional provides had been diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the battle in 2022. “The USA at the moment actively inspired such imports by India for strengthening international power markets’ stability,” he added.
The choice to import Russian oil was “meant to make sure predictable and inexpensive power prices to the Indian shopper”, continued Jaiswal. “Nevertheless, it’s revealing that the very nations criticising India are themselves indulging in commerce with Russia.”
“The choice to double tariffs on Indian items to 50 per cent is one other instance of the deliberate and muscular unpicking of the principles‑primarily based multilateral international system,” says Marco Forgione, the director basic of the Chartered Institute of Export & Worldwide Commerce.
Modi can also be underneath large home strain to face as much as his long-term good friend, Trump, whom the Indian opposition events have accused of bullying.
“India is now in a lure: due to Trump’s strain, Modi will cut back India’s oil purchases from Russia, however he can’t publicly admit to doing so for worry of trying like he’s surrendering to Trump’s blackmail,” says Ashley Tellis of Washington’s Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace.
“We could possibly be heading right into a useless disaster that unravels a quarter-century of hard-won beneficial properties with India.”
Indian state refiners have in latest days stopped shopping for Russian oil as reductions narrowed and strain from Trump rose, information companies reported.
Modi, in his first assertion after the tariff announcement, claimed that “India won’t ever compromise on the wellbeing of its farmers, dairy [sector] and fishermen”.
“And I do know, personally, I must pay a heavy worth for it,” he added.
Trump’s tariffs are poised primarily to have an effect on exports of leather-based, chemical substances, footwear, gems and jewelry, textiles, and seafood.
India exported items value round $87bn to the US within the fiscal yr ending March 2025, which accounts for about 2 per cent of India’s GDP. If the proposed 50 per cent obligation on Indian items is enforced from 21 August, pharmaceutical exports, that are topic to a special obligation construction, would be the solely merchandise nonetheless shipped from India to the US.
One Indian authorities supply informed reporters that India must step by step restore ties with the US whereas participating extra with different nations which have confronted the brunt of Trump tariffs and assist cuts, together with members of the African Union and the Brics bloc, which incorporates Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa.
Whereas India mends ties with China, Putin is predicted to go to New Delhi this yr. On Tuesday, Russia mentioned the 2 nations had mentioned additional strengthening their defence cooperation “within the type of a very privileged strategic partnership”.
“Russia will try to use the rift between the US and India by proposing the restoration of the Russia-India-China trilateral and new initiatives in defence,” says analyst Aleksei Zakharov on the Observer Analysis Basis. “India will undoubtedly be conscious of structural components, equivalent to sanctions towards Russia, and can search to discover a compromise with the Trump administration.”
