The White Home celebrated Labor Day by asserting that President Donald Trump’s “protectionist commerce insurance policies have helped drive greater than $8 trillion in new U.S. funding.” The accompanying picture refers to “$8 trillion in tariff income.” There is a distinction between $8 trillion in U.S. funding and $8 trillion in tariff income, however Trump’s commerce insurance policies have achieved neither.
The second declare is simpler to refute. The Bipartisan Coverage Heart (BPC) calculates the gross tariff and excise tax income generated from January 1 to August 28 to be $158.8 billion, in keeping with the Treasury Division’s Every day Treasury Statements. The customs and excise taxes collected from January 20, when Trump took workplace, to August 28 quantity to about $156 billion.
In line with the Treasury Division’s personal information, the president’s insurance policies have clearly not raised anyplace close to $8 trillion; they’ve raised 2 p.c of this determine. The Congressional Price range Workplace estimates that the tariffs Trump has carried out since January will generate an estimated $3.3 trillion over 10 years—considerably lower than the $8 trillion that the White Home is claiming the tariffs have already raised.
Gross tariff income is not even probably the most related statistic; internet tariff income is. The BPC explains that the latter “removes ‘sure different excise tax income’ and accounts for refunds of tariffs,” i.e., the tariff income that stays in federal coffers. Though internet tariff income is just not out there within the Every day Treasury Statements, the BPC was capable of decide that internet tariff income was $135.7 billion from January by means of July 31 utilizing the Treasury’s Month-to-month Treasury Statements, which account for tariff refunds. Web tariff income as a share of complete imports jumped from about 2.4 p.c in March to five.73 p.c in April, reflecting the affect of Liberation Day’s “reciprocal tariffs,” and climbed to 10.31 p.c in June.
Nonetheless, the web tariff income of $135.7 billion quantities to 1.7 p.c of the White Home’s claimed $8 trillion in tariff income. (That is neglecting the truth that the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates that “$1 of excise tax income will result in a $0.25 decline in earnings and payroll tax income,” in keeping with the BPC.)
The primary declare is extra slippery; it is unclear what the White Home means by saying Trump’s insurance policies “helped drive” funding. One interpretation is that it’s crediting Trump’s reciprocal tariffs and hostile negotiations for producing extra international direct funding (FDI) within the U.S. than would have in any other case existed. Even assuming that all FDI since January is the direct results of Trump’s protectionist insurance policies, it’s fully inconceivable that $8 trillion has been raised in consequence.
The World Enterprise Alliance, a commerce affiliation that “actively promotes and defends an open financial system that welcomes worldwide firms to spend money on America,” reported $52.8 billion in FDI within the first quarter of 2025—a 34 p.c lower from 2024’s fourth quarter—citing the Bureau of Financial Evaluation (BEA). The BEA has not launched information for the second or third quarter of 2025, however, even when we generously assume a quarter-to-quarter doubling, that means $100 billion within the second quarter and $200 billion within the third (of which a month stays), we attain a grand complete of somewhat over $350 billion: 4.4 p.c of Trump’s touted $8 trillion in “new funding.”
The Labor Day publish additionally credited Trump with “creating a whole lot of hundreds of jobs.” Whole nonfarm employment elevated by 597,000 from January 2025 to July 2025, in keeping with the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July 2025 report. Nevertheless, complete nonfarm employment elevated by 1,073,000 from January 2024 to July 2024. If the White Home is crediting Trump’s insurance policies with modifications within the financial system, then it ought to acknowledge that they added almost half as many roles to the financial system because the Biden administration did over the identical time interval final yr.
In a while Sunday, the White Home mentioned to “Belief in Trump,” sharing a screenshot of Trump’s Reality Social publish the place he refers to “the entire TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS we’ve got already taken in” with tariffs. The info present that you must reject this fictitious determine, in addition to his different claims that tariffs are good for the US.
