One of many underrated accomplishments of Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential run was that he criticized fellow Republicans for his or her international coverage errors and lived to inform the story. When Rep. Ron Paul (R–Texas) ran for president in 2008 and 2012, he was booed repeatedly for criticizing the Iraq Warfare and different neoconservative international coverage positions and he ultimately light from the race.
In 2016, in contrast, Trump repeatedly slammed the George W. Bush administration for the Iraq Warfare, calling it “an enormous, fats mistake” and declaring that “we must always have by no means been in Iraq.” Trump additionally obtained some boos however nonetheless gained the nomination at the same time as he blasted U.S. international coverage as too war-prone. By the top of that GOP main season, even New York Instances columnists had been famously proclaiming that Trump may very well be a extra dovish president than Hillary Clinton.
When Trump ran for president once more in 2024, he articulated equally dovish themes. He blasted his former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley as a “warmonger“; he advocated speaking with authoritarian leaders comparable to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Kim Jong Un; and he repeatedly declared that solely he might avert World Warfare III. His vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance, maintained that Trump was “the candidate of peace.”
However within the first 100 days of Trump’s second time period—when not roiling the worldwide economic system with tariffs—he has talked an terrible lot about absorbing extra territory no matter how the occupants of that territory really feel about it. In his second inaugural tackle, the president pledged that the US could be a rustic that “expands our territory.” A few of Trump’s defenders tried to elucidate away that clause as a reference to area exploration, however that excuse has develop into much less and fewer believable.
In simply his first two months in workplace, Trump has repeatedly and insistently declared his curiosity in annexing Greenland, absorbing Canada, occupying Gaza, reclaiming the Panama Canal, mining uncommon earths in Ukraine, and unilaterally utilizing pressure in Mexico. None of this sounds notably dovish or useful in averting World Warfare III.
A few of Trump’s extra batshit ideas—like sending the U.S. navy to occupy Gaza—is likely to be written off as pipe goals. His repeated emphasis on territorial enlargement, nonetheless, can’t be dismissed so simply. The president’s earlier statements and first-term report assist clarify his obsession with increasing America’s borders.
First, Trump has all the time possessed a mercantilist, zero-sum view of world politics and the worldwide economic system. In that mindset, extra territory is healthier than much less.
Second, Trump believes that peace among the many nice powers may be achieved by way of spheres of affect. This implies conceding elements of the globe to Russia and China—whereas increasing U.S. management over the Western hemisphere.
Third, altering territorial boundaries transgresses all kinds of worldwide norms—and Trump loves transgressing.
Lastly, Trump desires to emulate the leaders he admires. Putin and Xi are additionally into increasing their territorial management.
However the fashionable world operates in a different way from how Trump thinks it really works. What might need labored within the 18th century is out of date within the twenty first. In attempting to manifest his imaginative and prescient board of an expansionist United States, Trump is undermining key strategic pillars which have bolstered the free world for many years. If Trump achieves any of his desired territorial beneficial properties, the US is likely to be bigger. However it’s going to even be poorer and radically extra insecure.
Trump’s Expansionist Targets
Does Trump really intend to develop U.S. borders? Whereas he is talked rather a lot about territorial enlargement since profitable in 2024, it was not a outstanding a part of his marketing campaign rhetoric. He bobs and weaves a lot in his public statements that generally it appears the one certainty is that Trump likes uncertainty. Reviews that he proposed swapping Puerto Rico for Greenland had been dismissed as both absurd or naive. Can his newer musings even be discounted as a madman gambit?
Trump has all the time been an actual property man. He likes to personal land. He did give hints about his curiosity in territorial enlargement and useful resource extraction previous to his second inauguration. Way back to 2011, he talked concerning the alleged have to “take the oil” from Iraq, arguing that we might be “reimbursing ourselves” for the trillions of {dollars} spent on the Iraq Warfare. Throughout his first time period, Trump’s consolation degree with redrawing sovereign borders was larger than that of another postwar president. His administration acknowledged Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. To safe Morocco’s participation within the Abraham Accords, his administration acknowledged that nation’s annexation of Western Sahara. Aside from Israel, the US stays the one nation to acknowledge each annexations.
Trump’s second-term rhetoric and actions about territorial enlargement have been constant and chronic sufficient to rattle treaty allies. Panamanian officers have been on edge since Trump began loudly complaining that China controls the Canal Zone. (China doesn’t management the Canal Zone.) In March he advised Congress, “My administration shall be reclaiming the Panama Canal, and we have already began doing it,” inflicting the president of Panama to subject a public denial. In January there have been a number of stories of a tense 45-minute telephone dialog between Trump and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, throughout which Trump issued a wide range of coercive threats to stress Denmark into ceding Greenland to the US. One European official briefed on the decision advised the Monetary Instances, “Earlier than, it was arduous to take it severely. However I do suppose it’s severe, and probably very harmful.” In his first joint tackle to Congress, Trump declared of Greenland, “Someway, we’ll get it.”
The identical dynamic has performed out with Canada. Nearly instantly after Trump gained his second time period, he talked about Canada changing into the 51st state and derisively referred to then–Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as “Governor.” Canadian officers together with Trudeau at first nervously laughed off Trump’s rhetoric.
That modified after Trump was sworn in and began threatening tariffs, following by way of on his pledge to make use of “financial pressure” to stress Canada into an Anschluss with the US. White Home press secretary Karoline Leavitt has repeatedly recommended that the one method for Canada to keep away from tariffs is to develop into the 51st state. In line with The New York Instances, Trump advised Trudeau in February that he didn’t settle for the 1908 treaty demarcating the border between the 2 international locations and wished to revise it, together with how lakes and rivers between the 2 nations could be ruled.
Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick defined to the Canadian finance minister that Trump was considering exiting the raft of agreements that ruled the bilateral relationship. By March, throughout his final week in workplace, Trudeau advised the Canadian press that Trump is threatening tariffs as a result of “what he desires is to see a complete collapse of the Canadian economic system, as a result of that’ll make it simpler to annex us.”
Perhaps Trump is bluffing when he threatens to annex parts of Panama, Canada, and Denmark. However the management of all three longstanding U.S. allies appear to suppose that he’s severe, inflicting a dramatic downturn of U.S. standing in these three international locations. It additionally jibes with behind-the-scenes reporting of Trump wanting a portray of James Polk—president in the course of the largest enlargement of U.S. territory in American historical past—hanging within the Oval Workplace. In line with The Wall Avenue Journal, Trump has advised guests that Polk “obtained plenty of land.”
Why, precisely, is Trump so desirous to develop America’s territory?
Trump the Mercantilist
Again in January 2016, The Brookings Establishment’s Thomas Wright authored in Politico one of many earliest and most correct assessments of how Trump thinks about worldwide relations. Wright concluded, opposite to most international coverage observers on the time, that Trump “has a remarkably coherent and constant worldview” with three tenets.
First, Trump is deeply skeptical of the liberal worldwide order that embraced globalization and the community of U.S. alliances. He believes commerce deficits are an indication of financial weak spot.
Second, he believes U.S. allies have cheated the US out of billions of {dollars} by operating commerce surpluses and never paying sufficient for their very own protection.
Third, Trump’s sympathies are with international strongmen who he believes are robust and agency and get what they need in world politics. The outcome, wrote Wright, is “a worldview that makes an amazing leap backward in historical past, embracing antiquated notions of energy that have not been prevalent since previous to World Warfare II.”
The entire level of worldwide commerce is that it could possibly generate win-win outcomes the place each side profit. Trump embodies the opposite doctrine that predated Adam Smith’s Wealth of Nations: mercantilism. Mercantilists believed that prosperity requires commerce surpluses—promoting extra throughout nationwide borders than you purchase—which in flip would allegedly increase the ability of the state.
Mercantilists of the preindustrial period insisted states that ran commerce surpluses would have the ability to afford the massive standing armies that had been the norm in a violent seventeenth century. Josiah Baby, a number one seventeenth century mercantilist, made this level repeatedly: “International commerce produces riches, riches energy, energy preserves our commerce and faith.”
Trump’s 2017 inaugural declaration that “safety will result in nice prosperity and energy” suits with that antiquated imaginative and prescient. Moreover, if one believes commerce is a zero-sum competitors and the world an unsafe place, territorial enlargement is smart. The worldwide distribution of territory is undeniably a zero-sum sport; the extra one acquires, the much less territory is offered for any competitor. Mercantilists imagine in free commerce inside one’s sovereign territory.
After threatening tariffs on Canada this previous March, for instance, Trump posted on social media that the “solely factor that is smart is for Canada to develop into our cherished Fifty First State. This is able to make all Tariffs, and all the things else, completely disappear.” Increasing territory creates a bigger inside market, which each mercantilists and classical economists agree results in a extra productive nationwide economic system. Mercantilists like Trump will all the time desire territorial enlargement to extra worldwide commerce, believing enlargement is the trail to energy and lots.
The geopolitical advantages of territorial enlargement are tied into Trump’s need to forge a great-power peace with China and Russia. Trump admires different nice powers, and to guage from his rhetoric he views Russia and China as the one different states that actually matter in world politics.
This may be seen most clearly in how Trump has tried to barter a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The brand new administration has been very keen and desirous to strong-arm Ukraine into a wide range of territorial and tactical concessions. In distinction, Trump has been deferential towards Russia. Recall that in the course of the now-infamous Oval Workplace assembly with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump requested a reporter, “You need me to say actually horrible issues about Putin after which say, ‘Hello Vladimir, how we doing on the deal?'” 5 minutes later, Trump was saying horrible issues about Zelenskyy to his face.
All through his first time period and the primary 100 days of his second time period, Trump has demonstrated flexibility with respect to how different nice powers deal with their periphery. Whereas members of his Cupboard protested China’s authoritarian crackdowns throughout his first time period, Trump himself signaled to Xi that he would chorus from criticizing Xi’s actions in Hong Kong and Xinjiang within the curiosity of securing a bilateral commerce deal.
Regardless of imposing tariffs on China, there may be persistent hypothesis that second-term Trump is looking for a grand discount with Beijing, a lot as he desired throughout his first time period. Trump additionally recommended throughout his first time period that Crimea was traditionally a part of Russia. In 2025 Trump has reportedly proposed that the US acknowledge Russia’s annexation of Crimea and urge the United Nations to do the identical in return for an finish to the conflict in Ukraine.
How does this hook up with Trump’s personal territorial ambitions? All these statements are indicators that Trump believes in nice powers divvying up the world’s belongings, as Monica Duffy Toft, my colleague at Tufts College’s Fletcher Faculty, argued lately: “As we speak’s geopolitical panorama notably resembles the shut of World Warfare II, when U.S. President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, and Soviet chief Joseph Stalin sought to divide Europe into spheres of affect….If Putin, U.S. President Donald Trump, and Chinese language President Xi Jinping had been to succeed in an off-the-cuff consensus that energy issues greater than ideological variations, they might be echoing Yalta by figuring out the sovereignty and way forward for close by neighbors.”
On this situation, Trump could be slicing a deal during which Russia and China might develop their very own spheres of affect. In return, the US would have free rein over the Western Hemisphere. This is able to empower Trump to make use of America’s navy and financial energy to redraw the map, increasing into Greenland, the Panama Canal Zone, and, oh sure, Canada.
These actions would violate a welter of worldwide treaties to which the US is a signatory. For Trump, nonetheless, such authorized impunity could be a bonus slightly than a hindrance. His political superpower has all the time been to violate norms and legal guidelines after which emerge unscathed. If redrawing world borders helps to foster some sort of peaceable nice energy live performance, Trump might plausibly argue that his outside-the-box considering helped to cut back world tensions whereas increasing America’s dimension.
Putin’s forcible acquisition of Crimea in 2014 induced his ballot numbers in Russia to skyrocket regardless of the financial deprivations attributable to the following conflict. Nationalism performs properly, and redrawing the map is a world-historical act that burnishes a pacesetter’s historic legacy. This lesson has not been misplaced on Trump. In line with a Wall Avenue Journal report: “Trump stays severe about rising the nation throughout his time within the White Home. He views it as part of his legacy, 5 individuals who have spoken to him say.” If Trump might achieve increasing U.S. territory, maybe present residents and future historians will look kindly upon him as properly.
Maybe the mixed efforts of China, Russia, and the US can shift norms about territorial borders again to the Age of Empires. However the thought any of it will profit the US is nuts.
Annexation Speak Results in Resistance
In 1917 the US bought the U.S. Virgin Islands from Denmark for $25 million—the costliest buy of territory per sq. mile in American historical past. It has been greater than a century since the US annexed any territory within the Western Hemisphere. Certainly, the overarching world development for the reason that finish of World Warfare I has been for states to shed territory slightly than add it. When the U.S. acquired the Virgin Islands, fewer than 60 sovereign international locations existed. Greater than a century later, the disintegration of empires and subsequent waves of decolonization have pushed that quantity near 200.
The basic driver for this enhance is the secular surge in nationalism. International locations and those who have any historical past of independence or autonomy often don’t prefer to relinquish it, whatever the materials penalties. It’s due to this fact not shocking that Trump’s rhetoric about shopping for Greenland and absorbing Canada haven’t gone over properly with the native populations.
In mid-March Greenland held elections—and Qulleq, essentially the most pro-American occasion of the bunch, didn’t garner sufficient votes for a seat within the parliament. All the foremost events in Greenland categorically rejected annexation by the US. When Vance visited Greenland in late March, his preliminary plan to talk to supportive locals was scrubbed—as a result of there have been no native supporters. One might argue the U.S. navy might simply management the island if push got here to shove. However until Trump was ready to make use of pressure towards the 56,000 native residents, such an effort would show extraordinarily messy.
The same dynamic has performed out in Canada. Previous to Trump’s chatter about Canada changing into the 51st state, Conservative Get together chief Pierre Poilievre was trouncing the ruling Liberal Get together within the polls. It appeared just like the 2025 Canadian elections could be a well-known echo of the 2024 U.S. election. However as Trump stored insisting that Canada be part of the US, the vibe shifted. All of the sudden Canadians had been booing “The Star-Spangled Banner” at sporting occasions, enlisting within the navy at larger charges, and altering their thoughts concerning the upcoming election.
Poilievre had categorically rejected the concept of becoming a member of the US however his stylistic similarities to Trump damage his standing. By late March, the Liberals surged forward in nationwide polls for the primary time in three years forward of the April 28 election.
Once more, the US probably has the navy would possibly to shift the border. Whether or not Trump is ready to put money into the mandatory coercive equipment to crack down on restive Canadians is one other matter.
Even when Trump would not care that residents of potential annexed areas aren’t proud of the concept, neither the financial nor the safety logic for expanded territorial management is smart. Trump clearly believes that Russia is a superb energy, however the one dimension on which that’s true is in its possession of nuclear weapons. Although Russia is much and away the most important nation when it comes to geographic dimension, its share of world financial output peaked at 3 p.c throughout this century and has been on the decline for years.
Equally, why would the US have to personal Greenland? The island is already extraordinarily open to international direct funding, so it isn’t like sovereign management is an financial necessity. The U.S. already has a big navy base there, and—previous to the president’s annexation threats—Denmark had signaled a willingness to permit a fair better U.S. navy presence. Past the perceived status of increasing U.S. territory, the distinction for actual U.S. targets between Greenland being an impartial republic, a protectorate of Denmark, or part of the US is negligible.
Trump administration officers declare they want Greenland to thrust back encroachment by Russia and China. However this simply highlights one other downside with Trump’s logic: the arduous limits of a sphere-of-influence strategy to the world.
Neither Europe nor the Center East nor the complete continent of Africa have a “pure” hegemon. The rationale Russia is considering Greenland is that Moscow believes the Arctic is a part of its sphere of affect; China equally likes to speak concerning the Arctic as a part of its Polar Silk Highway. In these areas one can envision Trump’s nice powers gamesmanship main not towards world stability between three regional hegemons, however slightly to a brand new “Nice Sport” with the entire geopolitical tensions that include it.
Moreover, whereas it’s straightforward to recommend that the US can commerce American hegemony within the Western Hemisphere for Chinese language hegemony within the Pacific Rim, fairly a couple of different international locations would have an issue with that entente. Longstanding U.S. allies comparable to Japan and South Korea will resist being considered as part of China’s sphere of affect; so will newer companions, comparable to India. Equally, plenty of Latin American international locations is not going to wish to abandon their buying and selling relationship with China. At current, China is South America’s prime buying and selling associate and the second-largest buying and selling associate for all of Latin America. China has signed commerce agreements with Chile, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Nicaragua, and Peru; 22 international locations within the hemisphere are a part of the Belt and Highway Initiative. One can debate the geopolitical deserves of cozying as much as China, however a protectionist Trump administration will not be going to steer these international locations to desert the Chinese language market willingly.
At any fee, buying and selling the present set of U.S. allies for an expanded United States is a horrible deal. European and Pacific Rim allies are technologically refined economies offering an vital supply of America’s international direct funding. The democratic regimes populating these areas have additionally confirmed to be extraordinarily steady and sturdy. Sacrificing them to a sphere-of-influence strategy is like buying and selling Luka Dončić for Anthony Davis.
Trump would possibly suppose increasing America’s territory would be the final political win. However annexing territory doesn’t have the identical advantages within the twenty first century that it did within the 18th. Stockpiling some uncommon earths would possibly make sense as a safety precaution, however equating management of pure sources with energy or a lot misreads an terrible lot of current financial historical past. Based mostly on the reactions to his current rhetoric, Trump won’t be able to rewrite U.S. borders with out using pressure. Expending blood and treasure to amass territory that’s already below the management of loyal allies looks as if too excessive a value to pay.
Simply earlier than World Warfare I, Norman Angell defined in The Nice Phantasm that the beneficial properties from commerce far outweigh the beneficial properties of plunder. The horrific prices of the Nice Warfare proved a really expensive affirmation of Angell’s argument. With Trump’s lust for increasing America’s borders changing into readily obvious, we danger having to relearn this lesson the arduous method.
