Now that we’ve gotten the American League’s annual paddling of the Nationwide League within the All-Star Recreation out of the best way, it’s time to give attention to the enterprise finish of the common season. Whereas we’re not fairly within the cash rounds of the season in September, we’re getting nearer to the commerce deadline as effectively. The depth is beginning to ramp up now and here is what to look at for because the second half will get underway as we speak.
Can Paul Skenes win the NL Cy Younger Award?
I do know that there’s going to be a few of y’all who learn this and assume “Okay, pump the brakes a bit. Yeah, Paul Skenes has been electrical since developing and his begin in All-Star Recreation did reside as much as the hype however he’s nonetheless a rookie.” That’s true — you must go all the best way again to 1981 to discover a rookie Cy Younger winner, again when Fernando Valenzuela and Fernandomania ran wild all around the Nationwide League. It’s been 43 years and we haven’t seen a rookie win the Cy Younger Award in both league ever since, in order that alone is one thing going in opposition to Skenes’ possibilities.
He’ll additionally should take care of a really robust pack of contenders. Chris Sale has been totally wholesome for the primary time since 2019 and the Atlanta Braves are reaping the advantages. Heading into the second half, Sale presently is presently both by himself or joint-leader amongst certified NL starters in relation to ERA- (65), FIP- (57) and xFIP- (63). He’s additionally heading into the again 9 of the common season with the NL lead in fWAR as effectively. Moreover, Sale has additionally in some way gone his complete profession with out profitable the Cy Younger and when you don’t need sentimentalities and narratives to play an element, the voters are human and it’ll certainly be on their thoughts as soon as it comes time to vote.
That’s not the one Braves pitcher who Skenes could should take care of, both. Reynaldo López has been one of many surprises of the season by way of starters and his first half was so good that he’s grow to be a darkish horse to win this factor. Skenes may also should take care of one other pair of NL East threats — each from the Philadelphia Phillies’ rotation. Zack Wheeler specifically has additionally been having a monster season and Ranger Suárez has been going stride-for-stride with him by way of being dominant on the mound.
It’ll actually be a formidable process for the younger Pittsburgh Pirates ace to beat these 4 pitchers and pull off a historic Cy Younger Award win as a rookie but it surely’s additionally actually attainable that Paul Skenes can pull it off. While you increase the sector of beginning pitchers within the NL from those that are certified to those that have merely pitched not less than 60 innings, unexpectedly you’ll see Paul Skenes proper up there with the perfect of the perfect right here in 2024. Skenes will probably be beginning the second half of this season with an ERA- of 46, a FIP- of 65 and an xFIP- of 57. These are unimaginable numbers for a rookie and if Skenes can stick with it, he will probably be within the dialog to win this factor. Assuming he can keep wholesome as effectively, Skenes undoubtedly has a shot at making historical past and placing an exclamation level on what’s been an unimaginable rookie season thus far.
Who will come out on prime within the AL East and AL West?
In terms of the divisional races, the closest motion going proper now are within the two coastal divisions within the Junior Circuit. The AL West has tightened up considerably in current weeks and it’s largely as a result of Seattle Mariners not precisely sweeping the leg whereas the Houston Astros had been reeling. Certainly, issues have gotten so shut within the AL West to the place FanGraphs’ Playoff Odds mannequin figures that this race ought to go proper all the way down to the wire.
Proper now, the Mariners are main the division by only one recreation (after having been up as many as 10 video games at one level) and are projected to complete 85-77 with a 48 % shot at profitable the division. In the meantime, the Astros are projected to finish issues at 86-76 and are being given a forty five % likelihood of profitable the AL West. Whereas it could be straightforward to easily blame the Mariners for selecting a really unhealthy time to go on an 8-15 run (which is strictly what occurred as soon as they had been up 10 video games), credit score needs to be given to the Astros for getting up off of the proverbial mat after struggling an early-season knockdown.
As such, it seems that we’re going to be in for a whale of a race out West. What makes this much more fascinating is that we received’t have to attend to see these two groups lock horns — Seattle will probably be internet hosting Houston to kick off the second half of the season tonight. Julio Rodríguez and the remainder of Seattle’s offense might want to step it up in the event that they’re going to have a shot at lastly profitable the AL West once more however they’ll actually have their work lower out for them as they’ll should take care of Houston’s trio of Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Ronel Blanco to kick issues off. That must be a enjoyable collection out West.
In the meantime, issues within the AL East are heating up as effectively. Whereas Aaron Decide and the New York Yankees have spent most of this season in first place, they’ve by no means put greater than three video games between themselves and their foes within the East. The Baltimore Orioles had been nipping at their heels all season and we finally noticed Gunnar Henderson and the O’s overtake New York within the standings. The Yankees have had a tough go of it these days — after beginning off the month of June by persevering with an eight-game profitable streak that had began in late-Might, New York has gone 13-21 and fallen into second place since that streak was snapped.
In the meantime, Baltimore has been a bit streaky in each instructions for the reason that begin of June. The O’s received six-straight in early June after which closed out the month with a run the place they misplaced 5 straight after which received 4 straight instantly afterwards. The Orioles then went into the break by shedding 5 straight video games earlier than breaking that streak with a win on the ultimate Sunday earlier than the break as they salvaged a three-game collection (and a one-game lead within the division) in opposition to the Yankees, themselves.
Nonetheless, New York’s wheel-spinning and Baltimore’s back-and-forth streakiness has opened the door for an unlikely contender within the type of the Boston Purple Sox. All-Star Recreation MVP Jarren Duran and the remainder of the Sox are actually simply four-and-a-half video games again of the Orioles for the divisional lead and have additionally lately gotten over the 50 % Playoff Odds mark for the primary time all season. If each Baltimore and New York proceed to be inconsistent, then the door might doubtlessly swing huge open for Boston to grow to be an actual contender to drag off an enormous upset and take the East.
Whereas there’s nonetheless loads of baseball left and the commerce deadline nonetheless but to come back, it actually wouldn’t be stunning in any respect to see each of those races go proper all the way down to the ultimate days of the common season in September.
How will every Wild Card race shake out?
Whereas I am personally not a fan of a sport with 162 video games increasing its Postseason to the purpose that MLB has executed, the format growth has achieved its objective of conserving extra groups aggressive within the common season. For example, the Cincinnati Reds are presently 47-50 which is nice sufficient for fourth place within the NL Central and a tie for seventh within the Wild Card standings. A group having a resumé like that used to imply that they had been heading for ol’ “Sellville” on the deadline. As a substitute, they’re solely three video games out of the third and last Wild Card spot which implies that Elly De La Cruz and the Reds are only a sizzling streak away from being an actual contender for a Postseason spot.
There are presently three NL groups (Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates) who’re fewer than two video games out of the third Wild Card spot after which it will get six-deep if you increase the sector to groups who’re fewer than 4 video games again (Reds, San Francisco Giants and the last-place (!!!) Chicago Cubs). That is 12 groups who all nonetheless have a puncher’s likelihood of entering into the Postseason — the Playoff Odds could be pessimistic for the NL Central groups however hey, so long as you are staying that near a playoff spot within the precise standings then chances are you’ll as effectively keep in it to win it, proper?
Whereas the AL would not have practically as a lot of a crowded discipline for his or her third Wild Card berth, it nonetheless figures to be very fascinating taking place the stretch. The Kansas Metropolis Royals have already gotten a leap on trades by including Hunter Harvey from the Nationals to their bullpen, the Tampa Bay Rays have been staying alive and floating round .500 for a few weeks now and we have already talked about what is going on on with the AL West and their divisional state of affairs. A type of groups out West is probably going going to get a Wild Card berth at this price however that also does not imply that the battling for each the division and a Postseason spot typically will probably be any much less fierce.
Merely put, all the pieces’s nonetheless all up within the air so far as the Wild Playing cards in every league are involved. Once more, there’s nonetheless loads of baseball to be performed and acquisitions to be confirmed so we’re nowhere close to having a real crystal ball for what is going on to occur sooner or later. What we do know is that it positive will probably be enjoyable watching how this all performs out. From award debates to precise playoff races, there’s nonetheless a ton that is left to be determined. All of it begins tonight when baseball will get again underway and hopefully we’ll see the second half of the season begin out with a bang.
