Now we have reached — roughly — the midway level of the 2025 NFL season.
We’ll be trustworthy, the 17-game schedule continues to be taking some getting used to.
In the present day, we’re wanting on the six groups which have shocked us (complimentary) and actually shocked us (derogatory) by way of eight weeks of the season.
When the 2025 NFL season started the Indianapolis Colts have been listed with an over/underneath of seven.5 wins.
With one victory the Colts will hit the over, and we’ve got not even reached Halloween.
It’s secure to say that the Colts is likely to be the most important shock of the 2025 season up to now, as Indianapolis enters Week 9 with a 7-1 document, tops within the NFL. Sure Daniel Jones is gathering the headlines, as he gained the coaching camp battle with Anthony Richardson and is among the many league’s greatest on the quarterback place by way of eight weeks. He ranks third in Adjusted Web Yards per Try (8.42), second in QBR (79.3) and leads the league with successful fee of 56.3%.
However the larger story is likely to be Jonathan Taylor. The operating again is placing up MVP-worthy numbers, as Taylor’s 850 dashing yards and 12 touchdowns each lead the league.
Trying forward, the Colts have video games with the Chiefs and Seahawks remaining, in addition to their season collection with the Texans. So issues may get sporty for Indianapolis down the stretch. However proper now? They’re the toast of the league.
Previous to the season the Patriots have been listed with an over/underneath of 8.5 wins, so New England sitting on six victories as October attracts to a detailed will not be a whole shock.
However it’s how they arrived at these six wins that is likely to be the most important shock.
A win over the Buffalo Payments — on the highway on Sunday Night time Soccer — confirmed the NFL world that the Patriots is likely to be for actual. Nevertheless, their win over the Cleveland Browns, and that staunch protection, final week may need been their greatest take a look at but. Drake Maye has put up MVP-level numbers, rating fourth within the NFL in ANY/A, third within the league in QBR, and main the best way in each Adjusted Yards per Try and NFL Passer Ranking.
And if you’d like extra shameless Maye propaganda, look the place he ranks in “Quarterback Effectivity” from RBSDM, which examines each Anticipated Factors Added and Completion Share Over Anticipated:
Count on this pattern to proceed, given New England’s schedule to shut out the 12 months. Their hardest video games remaining are a visit to Tampa Bay to tackle the Buccaneers, a house date with the Payments, and a visit to the Interior Harbor to tackle the Baltimore Ravens in mid-December.
The Bucs have been already an honest crew coming into this season, however in 2024 it felt extra like they made it to the playoffs by default with their 10-7 document, reasonably than actually dominating — as a result of the NFC South is horrible like that. Issues modified this 12 months, and now Tampa Bay is legitimately top-of-the-line groups within the NFC, probably the NFL.
Reaching 6-2 within the first half of the season is spectacular in its personal proper, however it’s much more outstanding when you think about the issue of the schedule Tampa Bay has confronted to open the 12 months. Of their eight video games they’ve confronted 5 respectable playoff groups in Houston, Philadelphia, Seattle, San Francisco, and Detroit — dropping their solely two video games to the Eagles and Lions. It’s nothing to sneeze at if you’re competing with groups of that caliber, and their recreation in opposition to the Tremendous Bowl champs got here right down to a single rating.
Baker Mayfield is enjoying MVP-caliber soccer for the Bucs this season, marrying his deep ball moxie with a definite lack of turnovers. Pair that with a bend-don’t-break protection and it’s guaranteeing that each recreation is shut for Tampa.
It’s actually honest to surprise if the Bucs can hold this up with out Mike Evans who went on IR, however this crew has proven depth and the flexibility to scheme round its deficiencies previously.
It’s laborious to imagine this labored out in addition to it did. The Hawks made a daring transfer within the offseason to jettison Geno Smith and signal Sam Darnold to an enormous contract, and it actually felt like this was going to explode of their faces. Chasing the identical sort of success Mayfield was having in Tampa Bay, Seattle went all-in on Darnold and it was actually unclear whether or not or not he may succeed with out receivers like Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Darnold isn’t simply succeeding, he’s thriving. A lot in order that he’s top-of-the-line quarterbacks within the NFL this season.
Sitting at 5-2, the Seahawks are the most effective crew within the NFC West by a big margin. They boast not only a Prime 5 scoring offense within the league this 12 months, however a very stingy Mike Macdonald protection which can also be Prime 10 in factors allowed. You’re going to win lots of video games at any time when you could have that sort of optimistic scoring disparity.
It’s actually honest to query the restricted competitors Seattle has confronted up to now, however merely thriving with Darnold underneath middle make the Seahawks one of many greatest surprises of the season.
Now it is a unhealthy sort of shock. Clearly any crew would battle with out its franchise quarterback, however you don’t count on a crew with the Ravens’ pedigree to utterly implode the second Lamar Jackson is out of the lineup.
Jackson went down harm and the Ravens utterly forgot their id. Derrick Henry hasn’t been operating the ball almost as successfully, Cooper Rush was a catastrophe at QB, and now they’ve pivoted to Tyler Huntley and gotten higher — however it is likely to be too little, too late. We’d count on a crew just like the Bengals and Zac Taylor to battle with out Joe Burrow, however John Harbaugh has the repute as top-of-the-line coaches within the NFL.
Defensively is likely to be the most important shock. Baltimore is thirtieth within the NFL in factors allowed, whereas additionally being twenty eighth in opposition to the move and twenty third in opposition to the run. The struggles on protection are wholly uncharacteristic from a Ravens crew, and for the primary time in a protracted, very long time, the Ravens don’t have that edge.
Even when Lamar comes again and turns across the offense, it’s unclear if the protection may be ok to make something occur this season.
Earlier than the season started, the Cardinals have been listed with an over/underneath of 8.5 wins.
That underneath may money earlier than Thanksgiving.
After profitable their first two video games, Arizona has fallen off a cliff. The Cardinals have misplaced 5 straight video games, and with their solely two victories coming in opposition to New Orleans and Carolina, this isn’t a strong resume for a crew. Making that resume worse is the actual fact Arizona misplaced to Tennessee in brutal, virtually hilarious, trend, to present the Titans their solely win of the season.
Kyler Murray has handled each damage struggles and a scarcity of manufacturing on the sector, as his ANY/A of 4.72 ranks him twenty ninth within the NFL, behind each Carson Wentz and Joe Flacco. Marvin Harrison Jr. has endured an up-and-down season, and with out James Conner, who suffered a season-ending foot damage in Week 3, the Cardinals’ dashing recreation has cratered. Arizona is averaging 110.4 yards per recreation on the bottom (twentieth within the NFL) and their EPA/Rush, the Cardinals are close to the underside of the league:
With some robust video games remaining (Arizona has to play the Rams twice in addition to the Seahawks, 49ers, and Buccaneers) it’s laborious to see the Cardinals making a second-half run.
